The paper deals with prognosis estimation for industrial systems in a series configuration, modeled by superimposed renewal processes (SRP), when the cause of failures is not available. In the presence of missing information, an SRP is commonly approximated by a Poisson process or a virtual age model. The performance of the approximations was assessed in the ideal configuration where all parameters of the models are known. The current article adopts a practitioner's perspective by assuming that the parameters of the models are unknown and must be estimated. In addition to inference procedures, the assessment of the prognosis indicators, such as the remaining useful life, is discussed. Finally, we investigate a fleet of infrastructure components of the Norwegian railway network operated by Bane NOR.

中文翻译：

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叠加更新过程的预后指标的表现

当故障原因不可用时，该论文涉及串联配置中工业系统的预测估计，通过叠加更新过程 (SRP) 建模。在存在缺失信息的情况下，SRP 通常由泊松过程或虚拟年龄模型来近似。在已知模型的所有参数的理想配置中评估了近似的性能。本文采用从业者的视角，假设模型的参数是未知的，必须进行估计。除了推理程序外，还讨论了对预后指标的评估，例如剩余使用寿命。最后，我们调查了由 Bane NOR 运营的挪威铁路网络的基础设施组成部分。