While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken under increasing GHGs, it is unclear how it would respond to stabilization of global warming of 1.5 or 2.0 °C, the Paris Agreement temperature targets, or 3.0 °C, the expected warming by 2100 under current emission reduction policies. On the basis of stabilized warming simulations with two Earth System Models, we find that, after temperature stabilization, the AMOC declines for 5–10 years followed by a 150-year recovery to a level that is approximately independent of the considered stabilization scenario. The AMOC recovery has important implications for North Atlantic steric sea-level rise, which by 2600 is simulated to be 25–31% less than the global mean, and for North Atlantic surface temperatures, which continue to increase despite global mean surface temperature stabilization. These results show that substantial ongoing climate trends are likely to occur after global mean temperature has stabilized.

预计随着温室气体排放量的增加，大西洋子午向翻转环流（AMOC）将会减弱，但尚不清楚它将如何应对全球变暖1.5或2.0°C（《巴黎协定》的目标温度或3.0°C，即预期的变暖）的稳定根据当前的减排政策，到2100年。根据使用两个地球系统模型进行的稳定变暖模拟，我们发现，温度稳定后，AMOC下降了5-10年，然后恢复了150年，恢复到大约与所考虑的稳定情景无关的水平。AMOC的恢复对北大西洋空间海平面上升具有重要影响，到2600年，模拟海平面上升比全球平均水平低25–31％，并且对北大西洋表面温度而言，尽管全球平均表面温度稳定，但仍在继续增加。这些结果表明，在全球平均温度稳定之后，很可能会出现持续不断的气候趋势。