Natural gas is used for the production of almost 20% of total energy today. The natural gas security of the Republic of Serbia is an urgent strategic, political and security issue. Serbia is one of the most vulnerable countries in Southeast Europe, because it only has one supply route. This study is a contribution to efforts to better understand the factors affecting energy security through the implementation of a new methodology based on the fuzzy–AHP synthesis model for measuring energy security. This new methodology was used to identify the energy, economic, environmental, social and technical indicators that accompany energy security analysis. The fuzzy–AHP synthesis model uses the asymmetric fuzzy inference approach for an outcome finding with the asymmetric position of fuzzy sets. The most important characteristic of the proposed model is its ability to operate with numerical and linguistic data and universality of application. The result of the proposed model shows a quantified assessment of energy security and its trend in the future of the natural gas sector. It indicates an unacceptably low level of present energy security and a gas system very vulnerable to supply cuts if the current gas infrastructure remains as it is in the future.

中文翻译：

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塞尔维亚天然气行业能源安全评估的模糊层次分析法综合模型

如今，天然气几乎用于生产总能源的 20%。塞尔维亚共和国的天然气安全是一个紧迫的战略、政治和安全问题。塞尔维亚是东南欧最脆弱的国家之一，因为它只有一条供应路线。本研究通过实施基于模糊层次分析法综合模型衡量能源安全的新方法，有助于更好地了解影响能源安全的因素。这种新方法用于确定伴随能源安全分析的能源、经济、环境、社会和技术指标。模糊层次分析法综合模型使用非对称模糊推理方法来寻找具有非对称位置模糊集的结果。所提出模型的最重要特征是它能够处理数值和语言数据以及应用的普遍性。拟议模型的结果显示了对能源安全及其未来天然气行业趋势的量化评估。这表明当前的能源安全水平低得令人无法接受，如果当前的天然气基础设施在未来保持不变，那么天然气系统很容易受到供应削减的影响。