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Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model
Geophysical Research Letters ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-30 , DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086930
Alyssa M. Stansfield 1 , Kevin A. Reed 2 , Colin M. Zarzycki 2
Affiliation  

Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable‐resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5‐VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin‐wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone‐related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone‐induced hazards may change in future climates.

中文翻译:

可变分辨率社区大气模型中RCP情景下北大西洋热带气旋的降水变化

减少气候模型的网格间距可以改善热带气旋在十年时间尺度上的表现。在本研究中,使用了社区大气模型5(CAM5-VR)的可变分辨率(VR)版本在整体历史气候模拟中和在两个代表性浓度路径(RCP)预测(RCP4)下研究北大西洋热带气旋气候学。 5和RCP8.5)。在RCP模拟中,流域范围内的热带气旋数量减少了,尽管降落的风暴数量并没有显示出直接的模式,尤其是在关注区域变化时。终生最大强度指标表明,热带气旋的强度增强了RCP合奏的强度。但是,尽管与热带气旋有关的降水速率有所增加,并且每场风暴伴随变暖产生的降水量有所增加,由于登陆风暴减少,美国东部热带气旋的年平均Rx5天减少。这项工作是对量化热带气旋诱发的危害在未来气候中可能如何变化的持续努力的一部分。
更新日期:2020-05-30
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