Abstract Uncertain and changing agricultural contexts challenge the resilience of farms to disturbances. Organic farming has long been considered a niche practice and has provided farmers with a market that is more protected and regulated than that for conventional farming. However, the organic market is globalising, especially for the dairy sector. This globalisation exposes farms to higher volatility in organic milk price. Thus, identifying resilience factors for organic dairy farms is necessary to support farmers’' strategic decisions. Our objective was to identify factors that promote resilience of organic dairy cattle farms over time. We surveyed 81 organic dairy-cattle farms in six French regions. We collected data on farm structure (e.g. utilised agricultural area, number of cows) and on farmers' practices (e.g. calving period, grazing duration, date of turnout to grazing). Unlike most resilience assessments, which rely on technical and economic indicators and threshold values defined by experts, we used the evolution of farmers' satisfaction since they converted to organic farming as a surrogate for subjective (i.e. self-perceived) resilience. We postulated that stable or increasing well-being of farmers, which is visible through their satisfaction, would demonstrate subjective resilience of farms in a holistic way. Using sparse Partial Least Square regression, we related the evolution of farm structures and farmers' practices over time to the evolution of farmers' satisfaction in the face of a variety of disturbances (e.g. droughts, decrease in milk prices). Results showed that practices that focused on self-sufficient pasture-based grazing systems improved farmers' satisfaction and thus the subjective resilience of organic dairy cattle farms. On average, farmers who improved their satisfaction increased the duration of full grazing (i.e. no other feedstuff distributed) by 0.7 months and advanced the date of turnout to grazing by 6.5 days over a 10-year period. We developed an original method, based on farmers' perceptions, to assess the subjective resilience of farms to multiple disturbances (e.g. climatic, economic, health-related) and for the first time showed the potential of pasture-based grazing systems to promote the subjective resilience of organic dairy farms.

中文翻译：

---

有机奶牛养殖场弹性因子的识别

摘要 不确定和不断变化的农业环境挑战了农场抵御干扰的能力。长期以来，有机农业一直被认为是一种利基做法，为农民提供了一个比传统农业更受保护和监管的市场。然而，有机市场正在全球化，尤其是乳制品行业。这种全球化使农场面临有机牛奶价格的更大波动。因此，确定有机奶牛场的弹性因素对于支持农民的战略决策是必要的。我们的目标是确定随着时间的推移促进有机奶牛场恢复能力的因素。我们调查了法国六个地区的 81 个有机奶牛养殖场。我们收集了关于农场结构（例如利用的农业面积、奶牛数量）和农民实践（例如产犊期、放牧持续时间、放牧日期）。与大多数依赖于技术和经济指标以及专家定义的阈值的复原力评估不同，我们使用农民转变为有机农业后满意度的演变作为主观（即自我感知）复原力的替代指标。我们假设农民的稳定或增加的幸福感（通过他们的满意度可见）将以整体方式展示农场的主观复原力。使用稀疏偏最小二乘回归，我们将农场结构和农民实践随时间的演变与农民面对各种干扰（例如干旱、牛奶价格下降）满意度的演变联系起来。结果表明，专注于自给自足牧场放牧系统的做法提高了农民的满意度，从而提高了有机奶牛场的主观弹性。平均而言，满意度提高的农民将完全放牧（即不分发其他饲料）的持续时间延长了 0.7 个月，并且在 10 年的时间里将放牧日期提前了 6.5 天。我们根据农民的看法开发了一种原始方法来评估农场对多种干扰（例如气候、经济、健康相关）的主观适应能力，并首次展示了基于牧场的放牧系统在促进主观有机奶牛场的恢复力。满意度提高的农民将完全放牧（即不分发其他饲料）的持续时间延长了 0.7 个月，并在 10 年的时间里将放牧日期提前了 6.5 天。我们根据农民的看法开发了一种原始方法来评估农场对多种干扰（例如气候、经济、健康相关）的主观适应能力，并首次展示了基于牧场的放牧系统在促进主观有机奶牛场的恢复力。满意度提高的农民将完全放牧（即不分发其他饲料）的持续时间延长了 0.7 个月，并在 10 年的时间里将放牧日期提前了 6.5 天。我们根据农民的看法开发了一种原始方法来评估农场对多种干扰（例如气候、经济、健康相关）的主观适应能力，并首次展示了基于牧场的放牧系统在促进主观有机奶牛场的恢复力。