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A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences ( IF 14.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-29
Safa Mote, Jorge Rivas, Eugenia Kalnay

The Human System is within the Earth System. They should be modeled bidirectionally coupled, as they are in reality. The Human System is rapidly expanding, mostly due to consumption of fossil fuels (approximately one million times faster than Nature accumulated them) and fossil water. This threatens not only other planetary subsystems but also the Human System itself. Carrying Capacity is an important tool to measure sustainability, but there is a widespread view that Carrying Capacity is not applicable to humans. Carrying Capacity has generally been prescribed a priori, mostly using the logistic equation. However, the real dynamics of human population and consumption are not represented by this equation or its variants. We argue that Carrying Capacity should not be prescribed but should insteadbe dynamically derived a posteriori from the bidirectional coupling of Earth System submodels with the Human System model. We demonstrate this approach with a minimal model of Human–Nature interaction (HANDY).

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The Human System is a subsystem of the Earth System, with inputs (resources) from Earth System sources and outputs (waste, emissions) to Earth System sinks.

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The Human System is growing rapidly due to nonrenewable stocks of fossil fuels and water and threatens the sustainability of the Human System and to overwhelm the Earth System.

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Carrying Capacity has been prescribed a priori and using the logistic equation, which does not represent the dynamics of the Human System.

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Our new approach to human Carrying Capacity is derived from dynamically coupled Earth System–Human System models and can be used to estimate the sustainability of the Human System.



中文翻译:

一种新的承载能力方法:从先验处方到基于基础机理和动力学的后验推导

人类系统在地球系统之内。实际上,应该对它们进行双向耦合建模。人类系统正在迅速扩展,这主要是由于消耗了化石燃料(比大自然积累化石燃料快一百万倍)和化石水。这不仅威胁其他行星子系统,而且威胁人类系统本身。承载能力是衡量可持续性的重要工具,但是人们普遍认为,承载能力不适用于人类。承载能力通常是事先确定的,大多使用逻辑方程。但是,该方程式或其变体不能代表人口和消费的真实动态。我们认为,不应规定承载能力,而应从地球系统子模型与人类系统模型的双向耦合中动态得出后验。我们用人与自然互动的最小模型(HANDY)演示了这种方法。

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人类系统是地球系统的子系统,具有来自地球系统源的输入(资源)和到达地球系统汇的输出(废物,排放)。

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由于化石燃料和水的不可再生库存,人类系统正在迅速发展,并威胁着人类系统的可持续性,并使地球系统不堪重负。

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事先已规定承载能力,并使用了逻辑方程,该方程不代表人类系统的动态。

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我们对人类承载能力的新方法源自动态耦合的地球系统-人类系统模型,可用于评估人类系统的可持续性。

更新日期:2020-05-29
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