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Analysis of the Most Severe Flood Events in Turkey (1960–2014): Which Triggering Mechanisms and Aggravating Pathways Can be Identified?
Water ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-30 , DOI: 10.3390/w12061562
Gamze Koç , Theresia Petrow , Annegret Thieken

The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.

中文翻译:

土耳其最严重洪水事件分析(1960-2014):可以确定哪些触发机制和加重途径?

通过将死亡人数、受影响人数和总经济损失作为指标,确定了 1960 年至 2014 年期间土耳其最严重的洪水事件。分析了这25个事件的潜在触发机制(即大气环流和降水量)和加重途径(即地形特征、集水面积、土地利用类型和土壤性质)。在此基础上,开发了一种新方法来确定每个事件的主要影响因素,并为确定特大洪水的主要洪水发生路径提供附加信息。然后通过层次聚类分析对事件进行分类。结果,发现并表征了六个不同的簇。聚类 1 包括主要受排水特征(例如,集水区大小和形状)影响的洪水事件;集群 2 包括主要因城市化而加剧的事件;陡峭的地形被确定为集群 3 的主导因素;极端降雨被确定为集群 4 的主要触发因素;发现饱和土壤条件是聚类 5 的主导因素;山脉的地形和地形影响是第 6 组的特征。这项研究确定了土耳其严重洪水的路径模式,确定了其主要因果或加剧机制。因此,地貌特性在安纳托利亚东部和东北部的大型集水区非常重要。此外,在小流域,城市化地区的比例似乎是洪水影响程度的一个重要因素。本文提出的结果可用于未来的城市规划和洪水风险预防研究,以了解土耳其不同地区的洪水机制。
更新日期:2020-05-30
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