Abstract The purpose of the study was to develop, calibrate and validate a comprehensive phenological model for the spatiotemporal simulation of the seasonal development of the six-toothed spruce bark beetle, Pityogenes chalcographus (CHAPY). The validation dataset was acquired through monitoring of the bark beetle's phenology at eight sites in Slovenia in 2017 and 2018, along with air and bark temperature measurements. The predictions were made using air temperature from the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), which is used to calculate the effective bark temperature for beetle development. Since the biology of P. chalcographus is poorly studied, a sensitivity analysis was used to pinpoint the most important model parameters. The first order (main) effect was the highest for the lower developmental threshold (DTL), while the second order (interaction, total) effect was the highest for the optimum temperature (TO). DTL was calibrated with an iterative procedure, and the best result with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) was achieved at 7.4°C. Effective temperatures in the range between TO and the upper developmental threshold were calculated with a nonlinear function whose parameters were appropriately calibrated. The spring date threshold when the model calculation starts was calibrated with an iterative procedure and set at 9th March, which had the minimum MAE. The onset of Norway spruce infestation in spring was estimated using a lower threshold of 15.6°C for flight activity and a mean thermal sum of 216.5 degree-days (dd) from 9th March onward. The observed mean thermal sum required for total development of filial beetles was 652.8 ± 22.7°C, while the predicted mean thermal sum was 635.4 ± 31.4°C. Re-emergence of parental beetles occurred when 52.7% of the minimum thermal sum for total development was reached. The relative duration of the egg, larval and combination of the pupal and teneral adult developmental stages was 9.4%, 58.2% and 32.4%, respectively. Mass swarming concluded in the end of August when daylength was lower than 13.6 h, which was determined with the independent dataset of 1,017 pheromone traps. The diapause initiation at a daylength

中文翻译：

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Pityogenes chalcographus (CHAPY) 物候模型的敏感性分析、校准和验证

摘要 本研究的目的是开发、校准和验证用于六齿云杉树皮甲虫 Pityogenes chalcographus (CHAPY) 季节性发育时空模拟的综合物候模型。验证数据集是通过 2017 年和 2018 年在斯洛文尼亚的八个地点监测树皮甲虫的物候以及空气和树皮温度测量获得的。这些预测是使用 INCA 系统（综合临近预报综合分析）的气温进行的，该系统用于计算甲虫发育的有效树皮温度。由于对 P. chalcographus 的生物学研究很少，因此使用敏感性分析来确定最重要的模型参数。低发育阈值 (DTL) 的一级（主要）效应最高，而最佳温度 (TO) 的二级（相互作用、总）效应最高。DTL 使用迭代程序进行校准，并且在 7.4°C 时获得了具有最低平均绝对误差 (MAE) 的最佳结果。TO 和发育上限之间范围内的有效温度是用非线性函数计算的，其参数经过适当校准。模型计算开始时的春季日期阈值通过迭代程序进行校准，并设置为 MAE 最小的 3 月 9 日。使用 15.6°C 的飞行活动较低阈值和 3 月 9 日之后的 216.5 度日 (dd) 的平均热量总和来估计挪威云杉在春季开始侵染。观察到的子虫完全发育所需的平均热量总和为 652.8 ± 22.7°C，而预测的平均热量总和为 635.4 ± 31.4°C。当达到总发育的最低热量总和的 52.7% 时，亲本甲虫重新出现。卵、幼虫和蛹和雌性成虫结合发育阶段的相对持续时间分别为9.4%、58.2%和32.4%。当日长低于 13.6 小时时，大规模蜂群在 8 月底结束，这是由 1,017 个信息素陷阱的独立数据集确定的。在白天的滞育开始 达到了总开发的最低热量总和的 7%。卵、幼虫和蛹和雌性成虫结合发育阶段的相对持续时间分别为9.4%、58.2%和32.4%。当日长低于 13.6 小时时，大规模蜂群在 8 月底结束，这是由 1,017 个信息素陷阱的独立数据集确定的。在白天的滞育开始 达到了总开发的最低热量总量的 7%。卵、幼虫和蛹和雌性成虫结合发育阶段的相对持续时间分别为9.4%、58.2%和32.4%。当日长低于 13.6 小时时，大规模蜂群在 8 月底结束，这是由 1,017 个信息素陷阱的独立数据集确定的。在白天的滞育开始