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Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Mexico applying mathematical and computational models.
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109946
O Torrealba-Rodriguez 1 , R A Conde-Gutiérrez 2 , A L Hernández-Javier 1
Affiliation  

This work presents the modeling and prediction of cases of COVID-19 infection in Mexico through mathematical and computational models using only the confirmed cases provided by the daily technical report COVID-19 MEXICO until May 8th. The mathematical models: Gompertz and Logistic, as well as the computational model: Artificial Neural Network were applied to carry out the modeling of the number of cases of COVID-19 infection from February 27th to May 8th. The results show a good fit between the observed data and those obtained by the Gompertz, Logistic and Artificial Neural Networks models with an R2 of 0.9998, 0.9996, 0.9999, respectively. The same mathematical models and inverse Artificial Neural Network were applied to predict the number of cases of COVID-19 infection from May 9th to 16th in order to analyze tendencies and extrapolate the projection until the end of the epidemic. The Gompertz model predicts a total of 47,576 cases, the Logistic model a total of 42,131 cases, and the inverse artificial neural network model a total of 44,245 as of May 16th. Finally, to predict the total number of COVID-19 infected until the end of the epidemic, the Gompertz, Logistic and inverse Artificial Neural Network model were used, predicting 469,917, 59,470 and 70,714 cases, respectively.



中文翻译:

应用数学和计算模型对墨西哥的 COVID-19 进行建模和预测。

这项工作仅使用截至 5 月 8日的每日技术报告 COVID-19 MEXICO 提供的确诊病例,通过数学和计算模型对墨西哥的 COVID-19 感染病例进行建模和预测。应用数学模型:Gompertz和Logistic以及计算模型:人工神经网络对2月27日至5月8日期间的COVID-19感染病例数进行建模。结果表明,观测数据与 Gompertz、Logistic 和人工神经网络模型获得的数据吻合良好,R 2分别为 0.9998、0.9996、0.9999。应用相同的数学模型和逆人工神经网络来预测 5 月 9日至 16日期间的 COVID-19 感染病例数,以便分析趋势并推断直至疫情结束的预测。截至5月16日,Gompertz模型总共预测了47,576例,Logistic模型总共预测了42,131例,逆人工神经网络模型总共预测了44,245例。最后,为了预测截至疫情结束时的 COVID-19 感染总数,使用了 Gompertz、Logistic 和逆人工神经网络模型,分别预测了 469,917、59,470 和 70,714 例病例。

更新日期:2020-05-29
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