Species' vulnerability to extinction is strongly impacted by their geographical range size. Formulating effective conservation strategies therefore requires a better understanding of how the ranges of the world's species have changed in the past, and how they will change under alternative future scenarios. Here, we used reconstructions of global land use and biomes of the past 7,000 years, and 16 possible climatic and socio-economic scenarios until the year 2100, to map the habitat ranges of 16,511 individual mammal, bird, and amphibian species through time. We estimate that extant species have lost an average of 19% of their natural range sizes thus far, and may lose up to 32% by 2100. Changes in range size vary greatly between species, with tropical, small-ranged, and threatened species being especially impacted. Our data reveal that range losses have been increasing disproportionately in relation to the size of destroyed habitat, driven by a long-term increase of land use in tropical biodiversity hotspots. The outcomes of different future land use and climate trajectories for global habitat ranges vary considerably, providing important quantitative evidence for conservation planners and policy makers of the costs and benefits of alternative pathways for the future of global biodiversity.

中文翻译：

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从公元前5,000年到公元2100年，世界范围内哺乳动物，鸟类和两栖动物的大小范围

物种的灭绝脆弱性受到其地理范围大小的强烈影响。因此，制定有效的保护策略需要更好地了解过去世界物种的范围是如何变化的，以及在替代的未来情况下它们将如何变化。在这里，我们使用了过去7,000年的全球土地利用和生物群落的重建，以及直到2100年的16种可能的气候和社会经济情景，绘制了16511种哺乳动物，鸟类和两栖动物的栖息地范围。我们估计到目前为止，现有物种平均损失了其自然范围的19％，到2100年可能损失多达32％。物种之间的范围大小变化差异很大，其中热带，小范围和受威胁物种特别受影响。我们的数据表明，由于热带生物多样性热点地区土地使用的长期增加，与被破坏的栖息地的大小相比，射程损失正在成比例增加。全球栖息地范围的不同未来土地利用和气候轨迹的结果差异很大，这为保护规划者和决策者提供了重要的定量证据，说明了全球生物多样性未来替代途径的成本和收益。