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Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102393
J. Verschuur , E.E. Koks , J.W. Hall

Ports are located in low-lying coastal and riverine areas making them prone to the physical impacts of natural disasters. The consequential disruptions can potentially propagate through supply chains, resulting in widespread economic losses. Previous studies to quantify the risks of port disruptions have adopted various modelling assumptions about the resilience of individual ports and marine network logistics. However, limited empirical evidence is available to validate these modelling assumptions or to provide deeper understanding of the ways in which operations are adapted during and after disruptions. Here, we use vessel tracking data to analyse past port disruptions due to natural disasters, evaluating 141 incidences of disruptions across 74 ports and 27 disasters. Results show a median disruption duration of six days with a 95th percentile of 22.2 days. All analysed events show multiple ports being affected simultaneously, challenging some of the studies that only focus on single port disruptions. Moreover, we find that the duration of the disruption scales with the severity of the event, with an increment of 1.0 m storm surge or 10 m/s wind speed associated with a two day increase in disruption duration. In contrast to commonplace assumptions in model studies, substitution between ports is rarely observed during short-term disruptions. On the other hand, production recapture happens in practice in many cases of port disruptions. In short, empirical vessel tracking data provides valuable insights for future modelling studies in order to better approximate the extent of the disruption and the potential resilience of the port and maritime network.



中文翻译:

自然灾害造成的港口中断:洞察港口和物流弹性

港口位于低洼的沿海和河流地区,因此容易遭受自然灾害的物理影响。随之而来的破坏可能会通过供应链传播,从而造成广泛的经济损失。先前的量化港口中断风险的研究已经采用了有关各个港口和海上网络物流弹性的各种建模假设。但是,有限的经验证据可用于验证这些建模假设或提供对中断期间和中断后适应操作方式的更深入的了解。在这里,我们使用船只跟踪数据来分析由于自然灾害造成的过去港口中断,评估74个港口中的141次中断事件和27次灾难。结果显示中位中断持续时间为6天,第95个百分位数为22.2天。所有已分析的事件均显示多个端口同时受到影响,这对仅专注于单个端口中断的某些研究提出了挑战。此外,我们发现扰动的持续时间随事件的严重程度而定,随着扰动持续时间增加两天,风暴潮的增加量为1.0 m或风速为10 m / s。与模型研究中常见的假设相反,在短期中断期间很少观察到端口之间的替换。另一方面,在许多港口中断的情况下,实际上都需要重新进行生产。简而言之,

更新日期:2020-05-28
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