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Evaluation of Driving Forces of Land Use and Land Cover Change in New England Area by a Mixed Method
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-27 , DOI: 10.3390/ijgi9060350
Ruiting Zhai , Chuanrong Zhang , Weidong Li , Xiang Zhang , Xueke Li

Understanding the driving forces of land use/cover change (LUCC) is a requisite to mitigate and manage effects and consequences of LUCC. This study aims to analyze drivers of LUCC in New England, USA. It combines meta-study, GIS, and machine learning to identify the important factors of LUCC in the area. Firstly, we conducted a meta-study of the research on LUCC in the New England area and specifically focused on the driving forces analysis. The meta-analysis revealed that the LUCC studies in the research area were highly related with many other research topics, and population and economic factors were the most mentioned drivers of the LUCC. The drivers of LUCC in this study area for the past several decades were relatively well analyzed. However, the study of the main driving forces of recent LUCC is lacking. Then, the determinants of LUCC for the recent years were quantitatively assessed using the random forests (RF) model along with geospatial data processing. Two planning regions in Connecticut and one planning region in Massachusetts were selected to serve as the case study areas. Investigated variables included environmental and biophysical variables, location measures of infrastructure and existing land use, political variables, and demographic and social variables. These drivers were examined for their relations with LUCC processes. Their importance as driving forces was ranked by the RF method. The results show both consistency and inconsistency between the meta-analysis and the RF method. We found that this mixed method can enhance our understanding of driving forces of LUCC and improve the selection quality of important drivers for modeling LUCC. With more solid information, better land management advices for sustainable development may also be provided.

中文翻译:

用混合法评价新英格兰地区土地利用和土地覆被变化的驱动力

了解土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)的驱动力是减轻和管理LUCC的影响和后果的必要条件。本研究旨在分析美国新英格兰地区LUCC的驱动因素。它结合了元研究,GIS和机器学习,以识别该地区LUCC的重要因素。首先,我们对新英格兰地区LUCC的研究进行了元研究,重点是驱动力分析。荟萃分析显示,该研究领域的LUCC研究与许多其他研究主题高度相关,人口和经济因素是LUCC最常被提及的驱动因素。在过去的几十年中,对LUCC的驱动因素进行了较为详尽的分析。但是,缺乏对最近LUCC主要驱动力的研究。然后,使用随机森林(RF)模型以及地理空间数据处理对LUCC的决定因素进行了定量评估。选择了康涅狄格州的两个规划区域和马萨诸塞州的一个规划区域作为案例研究区域。调查的变量包括环境和生物物理变量,基础设施和现有土地使用的位置度量,政治变量以及人口和社会变量。检查了这些驱动程序与LUCC流程的关系。通过RF方法对它们作为驱动力的重要性进行了排名。结果表明,荟萃分析与RF方法之间既一致又不一致。我们发现这种混合方法可以增进我们对LUCC驱动力的理解,并提高建模LUCC的重要驱动器的选择质量。
更新日期:2020-05-27
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