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Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming
Climate Dynamics ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05263-w
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez , Wolfgang A. Müller , Chao Li , Jochem Marotzke

We evaluate how hotspots of different types of extreme summertime heat change under global warming increase of up to \(4\,^\circ \hbox {C}\); and which level of global warming allows us to avert the risk of these hotspots considering the irreducible range of possibilities defined by well-sampled internal variability. We use large samples of low-probability extremes simulated by the 100-member Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) for five metrics of extreme heat: maximum absolute temperatures, return periods of extreme temperatures, maximum temperature variability, sustained tropical nights, and wet bulb temperatures. At \(2\,^\circ \hbox {C}\) of warming, MPI-GE projects maximum summer temperatures below \(50\,^\circ \hbox {C}\) over most of the world. Beyond \(2\,^\circ \hbox {C}\), this threshold is overshot in all continents, with the maximum projected temperatures in hotspots over the Arabic Peninsula. Extreme 1-in-100-years pre-industrial temperatures occur every 10–25 years already at \(1.5\,^\circ \hbox {C}\) of warming. At \(4\,^\circ \hbox {C}\), these 1-in-100-years extremes are projected to occur every 1 to 2 years over most of the world. The range of maximum temperature variability increases by 10–50% at \(2\,^\circ \hbox {C}\) of warming, and by 50–100% at \(4\,^\circ \hbox {C}\). Beyond \(2\,^\circ \hbox {C}\), heat stress is aggravated substantially over non-adapted areas by hot and humid conditions that occur rarely in a pre-industrial climate; while extreme pre-industrial tropical night conditions become common-pace already at \(1.5\,^\circ \hbox {C}\). At \(4\,^\circ \hbox {C}\) of warming, tropical night hotspots spread polewards globally, and are sustained during more than 99% of all summer months in the tropics; whilst extreme monthly mean wet bulb temperatures beyond \(26\,^\circ \hbox {C}\) spread both over large tropical as well as mid-latitude regions.



中文翻译:

全球变暖下的极热热点

我们评估了在全球变暖增加高达\(4 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)的情况下,不同类型的夏季极端热量的热点如何变化;考虑到内部采样的可变性所确定的不可避免的可能性范围,全球变暖的程度使我们避免了这些热点的风险。我们使用由100名成员的马克斯·普朗克研究所大合奏团(MPI-GE)模拟的低概率极端值的大样本获取五个极端热量指标:最高绝对温度,极端温度的返回期,最大温度变化率,持续的热带夜晚,和湿球温度。在变暖的\(2 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)下,MPI-GE预计夏季最高温度低于\(50 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)在世界大部分地区。在\(2 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)之外,该阈值在所有大洲都被超过,阿拉伯半岛上热点地区的最高预计温度。工业变暖前的\(1.5 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)已经每10–25年出现100年极端的1年工业温度。在\(4 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)处,预计在世界大部分地区,每100到1年出现一次这种极端情况。在\(2 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)时,最大温度变化范围增加10–50%,在\(4 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C } \)。超出\(2 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \),在工业化前的气候中很少发生的炎热和潮湿条件使不适应地区的热应力大大加剧;而极端的工业化前的热带夜景已经在\(1.5 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)处变得普遍。在变暖的\(4 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \),热带夜间热点在全球范围内极地扩散,并在热带地区整个夏季的99%以上都得到维持。而极端的平均月球湿球温度超过\(26 \,^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \)则分布在热带地区和中纬度地区。

更新日期:2020-05-27
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