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Predicting student dropout in subscription-based online learning environments: The beneficial impact of the logit leaf model
Decision Support Systems ( IF 7.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2020.113325
Kristof Coussement , Minh Phan , Arno De Caigny , Dries F. Benoit , Annelies Raes

Online learning has been adopted rapidly by educational institutions and organizations. Despite its many advantages, including 24/7 access, high flexibility, rich content, and low cost, online learning suffers from high dropout rates that hamper pedagogical and economic goal outcomes. Enhanced student dropout prediction tools would help providers proactively detect students at risk of leaving and identify factors that they might address to help students continue their learning experience. Therefore, this study seeks to improve student dropout predictions, with three main contributions. First, it benchmarks a recently proposed logit leaf model (LLM) algorithm against eight other algorithms, using a real-life data set of 10,554 students of a global subscription-based online learning provider. The LLM outperforms all other methods in finding a balance between predictive performance and comprehensibility. Second, a new multilevel informative visualization of the LLM adds novel benefits, relative to a standard LLM visualization. Third, this research specifies the impacts of student demographics; classroom characteristics; and academic, cognitive, and behavioral engagement variables on student dropout. In reviewing LLM segments, these results show that different insights emerge for various student segments with different learning patterns. This notable result can be used to personalize student retention campaigns.



中文翻译:

在基于订阅的在线学习环境中预测学生辍学:logit叶模型的有益影响

在线学习已被教育机构和组织迅速采用。尽管在线学习具有很多优势,包括24/7访问,高度灵活性,丰富的内容和低成本,但在线学习的辍学率很高,这阻碍了教学和经济目标的实现。增强的学生辍学预测工具将帮助提供者主动发现有离校风险的学生,并确定他们可能要解决的因素,以帮助学生继续学习。因此,本研究旨在通过三个主要方面来改进学生的辍学预测。首先,它使用一个基于全球订阅的在线学习提供商的10554名学生的真实数据集,对最近提出的logit叶子模型(LLM)算法和其他八种算法进行了基准测试。在预测性能和可理解性之间寻求平衡时,LLM优于所有其他方法。其次,相对于标准LLM可视化,LLM的新的多级信息可视化增加了新的优势。第三,这项研究明确了学生人口统计学的影响。课堂特点;以及学生辍学方面的学术,认知和行为参与变量。在复习法学硕士部分时,这些结果表明,对于具有不同学习模式的不同学生群体,会出现不同的见解。这个显着的结果可用于个性化学生保留运动。这项研究详细说明了学生人口统计学的影响;课堂特点;以及学生辍学方面的学术,认知和行为参与变量。在复习法学硕士部分时,这些结果表明,对于具有不同学习模式的不同学生群体,会出现不同的见解。这个显着的结果可用于个性化学生保留运动。这项研究详细说明了学生人口统计学的影响;课堂特点;以及学生辍学方面的学术,认知和行为参与变量。在复习法学硕士部分时,这些结果表明,对于具有不同学习模式的不同学生群体,会出现不同的见解。这个显着的结果可用于个性化学生保留运动。

更新日期:2020-06-29
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