Abstract Past Results indicate that there is a significant negative correlation between the Siberian High (SH) and winter surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasian continent and East Asia. However, correlation does not mean causation, especially in nonlinear dynamic systems. Here, we apply a recently developed method, Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), to detect the causal connection between SH and winter SAT over Northeast Asia. It suggests the winter SAT variability in Northeast Asia and SH shows two-way causation, SH ↔ winter SAT. Meanwhile, the influence of SH characteristic variables on wintertime SAT is in order of area, longitude of east edge, intensity and latitude of south edge of SH, respectively. What's more, the impact of wintertime SAT on SH characteristic variables is in order of area, intensity, longitude of east edge, and latitude of south edge of SH. Besides, we apply the CCM to analyze the causality between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) and the intensity of SH. It indicates that the NAM forces the intensity of SH, but not vise versa. Hence, we suggest that the NAM can influence winter SAT through the SH. The mechanism of the causality is presented preliminarily. These causal relationships and feedback effects in dynamic systems have opened up the possibility to improve the seasonal prediction of winter SAT over Northeast Asia by using the external factors of the SH.

中文翻译：

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检测东北亚西伯利亚高温和冬季地表气温之间的因果相互作用

摘要 以往的研究结果表明，欧亚大陆和东亚的西伯利亚高压（SH）与冬季地表气温（SAT）之间存在显着的负相关。然而，相关并不意味着因果关系，尤其是在非线性动态系统中。在这里，我们应用最近开发的方法，收敛交叉映射 (CCM)，来检测东北亚地区 SH 和冬季 SAT 之间的因果关系。这表明东北亚和 SH 的冬季 SAT 变化显示出双向因果关系，SH ↔ 冬季 SAT。同时，SH特征变量对冬季SAT的影响依次为面积、东缘经度、强度和南缘纬度。此外，冬季SAT对SH特征变量的影响依次为面积、强度、东边经度、和 SH 南缘的纬度。此外，我们应用CCM来分析北半球环形模式（NAM）与SH强度之间的因果关系。这表明 NAM 迫使 SH 的强度，但反之则不然。因此，我们建议 NAM 可以通过 SH 影响冬季 SAT。初步介绍了因果关系的机制。动态系统中的这些因果关系和反馈效应为利用 SH 的外部因素改进东北亚冬季 SAT 的季节预测开辟了可能性。我们建议 NAM 可以通过 SH 影响冬季 SAT。初步介绍了因果关系的机制。动态系统中的这些因果关系和反馈效应为利用 SH 的外部因素改进东北亚冬季 SAT 的季节预测开辟了可能性。我们建议 NAM 可以通过 SH 影响冬季 SAT。初步介绍了因果关系的机制。动态系统中的这些因果关系和反馈效应为利用 SH 的外部因素改进东北亚冬季 SAT 的季节预测开辟了可能性。