The European Physical Journal Plus ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-25 , DOI: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00453-1 Filippo Giorgi
The issue of the distillation of actionable climate change information for application to vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies in support of climate service activities (or VIA-CS) at regional to local scales is revisited. The 3R approach is introduced: robustness, reliability and relevance. Climate information for regions needs to be robust in the sense of producing statistically significant and consistent change signals based on multimodel and multimethod ensembles; it needs to be reliable in the sense of being based on a good understanding of the physical processes underlying the change signals, and on models capable of reproducing the functioning of the climate system at different scales; it needs to be relevant in the sense of providing information targeted for use in VIA-CS applications, including a proper characterization of uncertainties based on probabilistic approaches. It is advocated that the distillation problem requires an interdisciplinary consensus approach and a new generation of scientists acting at the interface between the climate modelling and end-user communities.
中文翻译:
为区域提供可行的气候变化信息:蒸馏范式和3R框架
再次探讨了提炼可行的气候变化信息以应用于脆弱性,影响和适应性研究以支持区域到地方规模的气候服务活动(或VIA-CS)的问题。引入了3R方法:鲁棒性,可靠性和相关性。就基于多模型和多方法合奏产生具有统计意义的,一致的变化信号而言,区域气候信息应具有鲁棒性;从充分理解变化信号背后的物理过程以及能够在不同尺度上再现气候系统功能的模型的角度出发,它必须可靠。在提供针对VIA-CS应用程序使用的信息的意义上,它必须具有相关性,包括基于概率方法的不确定性的正确表征。提倡蒸馏问题需要一种跨学科的共识方法,并且需要新一代科学家在气候建模与最终用户社区之间的相互作用中发挥作用。