BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans. OBJECTIVES Our objective was to develop regional ecological niche models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the conterminous United States and Canada with current observed and simulated climate and land-use data using boosted regression trees (BRTs). METHODS We used BRTs to assess climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in Canada and the United States under current and future projected climates. RESULTS Models for both species were mostly influenced by minimum daily temperature and demonstrated high accuracy for predicting their geographic ranges under the current climate. The northward range expansion of suitable niches for both species was projected under future climate models. Much of the United States and parts of southern Canada are projected to be suitable for both species by 2100, with Ae. albopictus projected to expand its range north earlier this century and further north than Ae. aegypti. DISCUSSION Our projections suggest that the suitable ecological niche for Aedes will expand with climate change in Canada and the United States, thus increasing the risk of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. Increased surveillance for these vectors and the pathogens they carry would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899.

中文翻译：

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埃及伊蚊和埃及伊蚊的当前和预期分布。加拿大和美国的白化病

背景伊蚊和埃及伊蚊。albopictus是感染人类的​​22种以上虫媒病毒的蚊媒。目标我们的目标是为Ae开发区域生态位模型。埃及和埃及。美国和加拿大海域的白化病，并使用增强回归树（BRT）观测和模拟了当前的气候和土地利用数据。方法我们使用BRT评估Ae的气候适应性。albopictus和Ae。在当前和将来的预计气候下，加拿大和美国的埃及埃及蚊子。结果这两个物种的模型主要受最低每日温度的影响，并显示出在当前气候下预测其地理范围的高精度。在未来的气候模式下，预计了这两个物种的适当生态位向北扩展。到2100年，预计美国大部分地区和加拿大南部部分地区将适合Ae。albopictus计划在本世纪初将其范围扩大到北面，并比Ae进一步向北。埃及。讨论我们的预测表明，随着加拿大和美国的气候变化，伊蚊的合适生态位将扩大，从而增加了伊蚊传播的虫媒病毒的风险。对于这些载体及其携带的病原体，加强监视是明智的。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899。讨论我们的预测表明，随着加拿大和美国的气候变化，伊蚊的合适生态位将扩大，从而增加了伊蚊传播的虫媒病毒的风险。对于这些载体及其携带的病原体，加强监视是谨慎的。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899。讨论我们的预测表明，随着加拿大和美国的气候变化，伊蚊的合适生态位将扩大，从而增加了伊蚊传播的虫媒病毒的风险。对于这些载体及其携带的病原体，加强监视是明智的。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899。