Climate change poses a threat to species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). A recent study on green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) at the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) showed a highly female-skewed sex ratio with almost all juvenile turtles being female. This shortage of males might eventually cause population extinction, unless rapid evolutionary rescue, migration, range shifts, or conservation efforts ensure a sufficient number of males. We built a stochastic individual-based model inspired by C. mydas but potentially transferrable to other species with TSD. Pivotal temperature, nest depth, and shading were evolvable traits. Additionally, we considered the effect of crossbreeding between northern and southern GBR, nest site philopatry, and conservation efforts. Among the evolvable traits, nest depth was the most likely to rescue the population, but even here the warmer climate change scenarios led to extinction. We expected turtles to choose colder beaches under rising temperatures, but surprisingly, nest site philopatry did not improve persistence. Conservation efforts promoted population survival and did not preclude trait evolution. Although extra information is needed to make reliable predictions for the fate of green sea turtles, our results illustrate how evolution can shape the fate of long lived, vulnerable species in the face of climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化和绿海龟的性别比例——防止可能的灭绝

气候变化对具有温度依赖性性别决定 (TSD) 的物种构成威胁。最近对大堡礁北部 (GBR) 的绿海龟 (Chelonia mydas) 进行的一项研究表明，雌性比例非常高，几乎所有的幼龟都是雌性。雄性的这种短缺可能最终导致种群灭绝，除非快速进化拯救、迁移、范围转移或保护工作确保有足够数量的雄性。我们建立了一个受 C. mydas 启发的基于个体的随机模型，但可能可以转移到其他具有 TSD 的物种。关键温度、巢穴深度和阴影是可进化的特征。此外，我们还考虑了 GBR 北部和南部之间杂交的影响、巢址 philopatry 和保护工作。在可进化的特征中，巢穴深度是最有可能拯救种群的，但即使在这里，温暖的气候变化情景也导致了灭绝。我们预计海龟会在气温升高的情况下选择较冷的海滩，但令人惊讶的是，筑巢地点并没有提高持久性。保护工作促进了种群生存，并没有排除性状进化。虽然需要额外的信息来可靠地预测绿海龟的命运，但我们的结果说明了面对气候变化，进化如何影响长寿、脆弱物种的命运。保护工作促进了种群生存，并没有排除性状进化。虽然需要额外的信息来可靠地预测绿海龟的命运，但我们的结果说明了面对气候变化，进化如何影响长寿、脆弱物种的命运。保护工作促进了种群生存，并没有排除性状进化。虽然需要额外的信息来可靠地预测绿海龟的命运，但我们的结果说明了面对气候变化，进化如何影响长寿、脆弱物种的命运。