Desertification is one of the major environmental problems that humanity faces today, since it reduces the availability of ecosystem services, increases food insecurity and poverty, and affects the wellbeing of societies. The analysis of the process is extremely complex, since the phenomenon takes place at different temporal and spatial scales, influenced by different factors. It is widely recognized that land use/land cover change (LULC) is one of the main drivers of desertification since environmental degradation is always triggers by the removal of natural vegetation cover. In this study, a LULC change model was calibrated and validated using climate model simulations, demographic data and land susceptibility maps for the historical period 2000–2010. Then, desertification susceptibility of the Northeast of Brazil were estimated by integrating LULC trajectories with three different downscaled climate change scenarios and projection of population growth for the period 2015–2025, 2025–2035, and 2035–2045 for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicated that, between 2010 and 2035–2045, areas of moderate susceptibility decreased 10.34%, while areas of high susceptibility increased 12.28% in the case of the RCP4.5. For the RCP8.5 scenario, those numbers are −16.85% for moderate susceptibility, and +19.62% for high susceptibility. Among all indicators included in the analysis, land management was the main driver of desertification susceptibility, which indicates that mitigation and adaptation strategies for the region should pursue sustainable land use policies.

中文翻译：

---

巴西东北部的荒漠化风险评估：当前趋势和未来情景

荒漠化是当今人类面临的主要环境问题之一，因为它减少了生态系统服务的可获得性，加剧了粮食不安全和贫困，并影响了社会的福祉。该过程的分析极其复杂，因为该现象发生在不同的时空范围内，受不同因素的影响。众所周知，土地利用/土地覆被变化（LULC）是荒漠化的主要驱动力之一，因为环境退化总是由去除天然植被覆盖物引发的。在本研究中，使用2000-2010年历史时期的气候模型模拟，人口数据和土地敏感性图对LULC变化模型进行了校准和验证。然后，通过将LULC轨迹与三种不同的按比例缩小的气候变化情景以及对2015-2025年，2025-2035年和2035-2045年排放情景RCP4.5和RCP8的人口增长预测相结合，估算了巴西东北部的荒漠化敏感性。 5，结果表明，在RCP4.5的情况下，2010年至2035年至2045年，中等磁化率区域下降10.34％，而高磁化率区域上升12.28％。对于RCP8.5场景，对于中等敏感性，这些数字是-16.85％，对于高度敏感性，这些数字是+ 19.62％。在分析所包括的所有指标中，土地管理是荒漠化敏感性的主要驱动力，这表明该地区的减缓和适应战略应奉行可持续的土地利用政策。