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COVID-19 created chaos across the globe: Three novel quarantine epidemic models.
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109928
Bimal Kumar Mishra 1 , Ajit Kumar Keshri 2 , Yerra Shankar Rao 3 , Binay Kumar Mishra 4 , Buddhadeo Mahato 5 , Syeda Ayesha 6 , Bansidhar Prasad Rukhaiyyar 7 , Dinesh Kumar Saini 8 , Aditya Kumar Singh 9
Affiliation  

The latest version of human coronavirus said to be COVID-19 came out as a sudden pandemic disease within human population and in the absence of vaccination and proper treatment till date, it daunting threats heavily to human lives, infecting more than 12, 11, 214 people and death more than 67, 666 people in 208 countries across the globe as on April 06, 2020, which is highly alarming. When no treatment or vaccine is available till date and to avoid COVID-19 to be transmitted in the community, social distancing is the only way to prevent the disease, which is well taken into account in our novel epidemic models as a special compartment, that is, home isolation. Based on the transmitting behavior of COVID-19 in the human population, we develop three quarantine models of this pandemic taking into account the compartments: susceptible population, immigrant population, home isolation population, infectious population, hospital quarantine population, and recovered population. Local and global asymptotic stability is proved for all the three models. Extensive numerical simulations are performed to establish the analytical results with suitable examples. Our research reveals that home isolation and quarantine to hospitals are the two pivot force-control policies under the present situation when no treatment is available for this pandemic.



中文翻译:

COVID-19 在全球范围内造成了混乱:三种新颖的检疫流行病模式。

据说被称为 COVID-19 的人类冠状病毒的最新版本是一种在人群中突然流行的疾病,迄今为止,在没有疫苗接种和适当治疗的情况下,它对人类生命构成了严重威胁,感染了超过 12, 11, 214 人截至 2020 年 4 月 6 日,全球 208 个国家的死亡人数超过 67 人,死亡人数超过 666 人,这一数字非常令人震惊。当迄今为止没有治疗或疫苗可用时,为了避免 COVID-19 在社区传播,保持社交距离是预防该疾病的唯一方法,这在我们的新型流行病模型中作为一个特殊的隔间得到了很好的考虑,即就是,居家隔离。根据COVID-19在人群中的传播行为,我们考虑到不同的人群,开发了这种大流行的三种隔离模型:易感人群、移民人群、家庭隔离人群、感染人群、医院隔离人群和康复人群。所有三个模型都证明了局部和全局渐近稳定性。通过适当的例子进行广泛的数值模拟来建立分析结果。我们的研究表明,在目前疫情无药可救的情况下,居家隔离和到医院隔离是两个关键的强制控制政策。

更新日期:2020-05-25
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