The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US.,bioRxiv - Genetics

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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US.
bioRxiv - Genetics Pub Date : 2020-05-23 , DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.21.109322
Michael Worobey ₁ , Jonathan Pekar _{2,

3} , Brendan B Larsen ₁ , Martha I Nelson ₄ , Verity Hill ₅ , Jeffrey B Joy _{6,

7,

8} , Andrew Rambaut ₅ , Marc A Suchard _{9,

10,

11} , Joel O Wertheim ₁₂ , Philippe Lemey ₁₃

Affiliation

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA.
Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK.
Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Bioinformatics Programme, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
KU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Evolutionary Virology, Leuven, Belgium.

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe.

更新日期：2020-05-23

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