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Optimization of carbon stock models to local conditions using farmers' soil tests: A case study with AMGv2 for a cereal plain in central France
Soil Use and Management ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-21 , DOI: 10.1111/sum.12608
Benjamin Nowak 1 , Gaëlle Marliac 2
Affiliation  

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is associated with environmental benefits and crop productivity; therefore, monitoring of SOC stocks is important when assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems. This study applied a hybrid method and the results of on‐farm soil tests to calibrate the AMGv2 model and adapt it to local conditions. The method was applied to soils in the Limagne plain (France), which shifted to cereal production since the 1960s. Based on analysing 988 soil test data, covering the period from 1954 to 2019, it was found that SOC stocks showed a significant decrease in the three main soil types of the study area. An optimization procedure estimated that the initial ratios of stable to total carbon fall in the ranges 0.42 and 0.46 for vertisols, 0.48 and 0.52 for calcisols, and 0.56 and 0.60 for fluvisols. Simulations using these values estimated that SOC stocks declined between 1960 and 2018 by between −31 and −17%, depending on soil type. The optimized model was used to forecast the evolution of SOC stocks up to 2050. These simulations showed a further decline in SOC stocks with continuation of current practices, even assuming a 15% increase in crop yields. They indicated that stopping straw exports would stabilize stocks, while a systematic introduction of cover crops would increase stocks about 3.8% over the period considered. It is concluded that this hybrid procedure can improve the adaptation of predictive models to local conditions.

中文翻译:

使用农民的土壤测试针对当地条件优化碳储量模型:以AMGv2为例的法国中部谷物平原案例研究

土壤有机碳(SOC)与环境效益和作物生产力相关;因此,在评估农业系统的可持续性时,监控SOC存量非常重要。这项研究应用了一种混合方法和农场土壤测试的结果来校准AMGv2模型并使之适应当地条件。该方法已应用于Limagne平原(法国)的土壤,自1960年代开始转向谷物生产。通过分析988个土壤测试数据(涵盖1954年至2019年),发现SOC存量在研究区域的三种主要土壤类型中均显着减少。一个优化程序估计,稳定的碳与总碳的初始比率在垂直异构体的范围为0.42和0.46,对于钙化溶胶的初始比率为0.48和0.52,对于氟维索尔的初始比率为0.56和0.60。使用这些值进行的模拟估计,根据土壤类型,SOC储量在1960年至2018年之间下降了−31%至-17%。优化的模型用于预测直到2050年的SOC储量的演变。这些模拟表明,即使当前农作物单产提高15%,SOC储量也随着当前实践的继续下降。他们表示,停止秸秆出口将稳定库存,而在所考虑的时期内系统地引入覆盖作物将使库存增加约3.8%。结论是,这种混合程序可以改善预测模型对局部条件的适应性。这些模拟表明,即使假设农作物单产提高了15%,SOC存量也随着当前实践的继续下降而进一步下降。他们表示,停止秸秆出口将稳定库存,而在所考虑的时期内系统地引入覆盖作物将使库存增加约3.8%。结论是,这种混合程序可以改善预测模型对局部条件的适应性。这些模拟表明,即使假设农作物单产提高了15%,SOC存量也随着当前实践的继续下降而进一步下降。他们表示,停止秸秆出口将稳定库存,而在所考虑的时期内系统地引入覆盖作物将使库存增加约3.8%。结论是,这种混合程序可以改善预测模型对局部条件的适应性。
更新日期:2020-05-21
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