Continued deforestation in the Amazon forest can alter the subsurface/surface and atmospheric branches of the hydrologic cycle. The sign and magnitude of these changes depend on the complex interactions between the water, energy, and momentum budgets. To understand these changes, we use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with improved representation of groundwater dynamics and the added feature of Amazonian moisture tracers. The control simulation uses moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) based observations of land use, and the deforestation simulations use a “business‐as‐usual” scenario projected for 2040–2050. Our results show that deforestation leads to changes that are seasonally very different. During the dry season, deforestation results in increased albedo and less available net radiation. This change, together with reduced leaf area, results in decreased evapotranspiration (ET), less atmospheric moisture of Amazonian origin, and an increase in temperature. However, we find no changes in precipitation over the basin. Conversely, during the wet season, surface winds increase significantly due to decreased surface roughness. Vapor transport increases throughout the deforested region and leads to an increase in easterly moisture export, and significant decrease in precipitation within the deforested regions of Eastern Amazon. Contrary to expectations, the moisture tracers in WRF show no evidence that precipitation decreases are due to recycling or changes in stability.

中文翻译：

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预计亚马逊森林砍伐导致南美水文气候变化

亚马逊森林中持续的森林砍伐会改变水文循环的地下/地表和大气分支。这些变化的符号和幅度取决于水、能量和动量预算之间复杂的相互作用。为了了解这些变化，我们使用了天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型，该模型具有更好的地下水动态表示和亚马逊水分示踪剂的附加功能。控制模拟使用基于中分辨率成像光谱仪 (MODIS) 的土地利用观测，森林砍伐模拟使用预计 2040-2050 年的“一切照旧”情景。我们的结果表明，森林砍伐会导致季节性非常不同的变化。在旱季，森林砍伐导致反照率增加和可用净辐射减少。这种变化，与叶面积减少一起，导致蒸散量 (ET) 减少，亚马逊河流域的大气水分减少，以及温度升高。然而，我们发现流域上的降水没有变化。相反，在雨季，由于地表粗糙度降低，地表风显着增加。整个森林砍伐地区的蒸汽运输增加，导致东部水分输出增加，亚马逊东部森林砍伐地区的降水显着减少。与预期相反，WRF 中的水分示踪剂没有证据表明降水减少是由于循环或稳定性的变化。我们发现流域上的降水没有变化。相反，在雨季，由于地表粗糙度降低，地表风显着增加。整个森林砍伐地区的蒸汽运输增加，导致东部水分输出增加，亚马逊东部森林砍伐地区的降水显着减少。与预期相反，WRF 中的水分示踪剂没有证据表明降水减少是由于循环或稳定性的变化。我们发现流域上的降水没有变化。相反，在雨季，由于地表粗糙度降低，地表风显着增加。整个森林砍伐地区的蒸汽运输增加，导致东部水分输出增加，亚马逊东部森林砍伐地区的降水显着减少。与预期相反，WRF 中的水分示踪剂没有证据表明降水减少是由于循环或稳定性的变化。