Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models that run under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios was used to attain the well-known SPI series during the reference period of 1986–2018 and the future period of 2018–2050, respectively. Analyzing drought features in two time periods generally indicated the higher probability of occurrence of drought in the future period. The results showed that the duration of mild droughts may increase, and extreme droughts will occur with longer durations and larger severities. Moreover, joint return period analysis through different copula functions revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same in the near future, while it declines by 12% over extreme droughts in the near future.

气候变化是人类面临的主要环境挑战之一，在许多地区造成了间歇性干旱，导致水资源减少。这项研究调查了气候变化对土耳其安卡拉各地气象干旱的特征（发生，持续时间和严重程度）的影响。为此，参考期间使用了从分布在安卡拉省的五个气象站的观测到的每月降雨序列，以及在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下运行的三种全球气候模型的动态降比例输出，以获得著名的SPI系列。分别为1986-2018年和2018-2050年。分析两个时期的干旱特征通常表明未来一段时间内发生干旱的可能性更高。结果表明，轻度干旱的持续时间可能会增加，而持续时间更长，严重程度更高的极端干旱将会发生。此外，通过不同copula函数的联合回归期分析显示，在不久的将来，轻度干旱的回归期将保持不变，而在不久的将来，与极端干旱相比，下降期将减少12％。