Strong wind coinciding with rainfall is an important weather phenomenon in many science and engineering fields. This study investigates changes in hourly extreme driving rain wind pressure (DRWP)—a climatic variable used in building design in Canada—for future periods of specified global mean temperature change using an ensemble of a Canadian regional climate model (CanRCM4) driven by the Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Evaluation of the model shows that the CanRCM4 ensemble reproduces hourly extreme wind speeds and rainfall (> 1.8 mm/h) occurrence frequency and the associated design (5-year return level) DRWP across Canada well when compared with 130 meteorological stations. Significant increases in future design DRWP are projected over western, eastern, and northern Canada, with the areal extent and relative magnitude of the increases scaling approximately linearly with the amount of global warming. Increases in future rainfall occurrence frequency are driven by the combined effect of increases in precipitation amount and changes in precipitation type from solid to liquid due to increases in air temperature; these are identified as the main factors leading to increases in future design DRWP. Future risk ratios of the design DRWP are highly dependent on those of the rainfall occurrence, which shows large increases over the three regions, while they are partly affected by the increases in future extreme wind speeds over western and northeastern Canada. Increases in DRWP can be an emerging risk for existing buildings, particularly in western, eastern, and northern Canada, and a consideration for managing and designing buildings across Canada.

中文翻译：

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基于加拿大区域气候模型模拟的集合，在加拿大建筑设计中与降雨同时发生的风荷载变化预测

强风遇雨是许多科学和工程领域的重要天气现象。本研究使用由加拿大驱动的加拿大区域气候模型 (CanRCM4) 的集合，调查了每小时极端驾驶雨风压 (DRWP)（加拿大建筑设计中使用的气候变量）在特定全球平均温度变化的未来时期的变化。代表性浓度路径 8.5 情景下的地球系统模型 (CanESM2)。对模型的评估表明，与 130 个气象站相比，CanRCM4 集合很好地再现了加拿大各地每小时的极端风速和降雨 (> 1.8 mm/h) 发生频率以及相关的设计（5 年回归水平）DRWP。预计加拿大西部、东部和北部的未来设计 DRWP 将显着增加，随着全球变暖的程度，增加的面积范围和相对幅度大致成线性比例。未来降雨发生频率的增加是由降水量增加和气温升高引起的降水类型由固体变为液体的共同作用驱动的；这些被确定为导致未来设计 DRWP 增加的主要因素。设计 DRWP 的未来风险比高度依赖于降雨发生的风险比，这表明三个地区的增加幅度很大，而它们部分受加拿大西部和东北部未来极端风速增加的影响。DRWP 的增加可能是现有建筑物的新风险，特别是在加拿大西部、东部和北部，