The article presents the results of the analysis of several temperature and precipitation parameters in the instrumental period in the capital of Montenegro—Podgorica, for the period 1951–2018. In order to use the latest results of several Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed for the Western Balkans, the results of temperature and precipitation modelling for the period 2011–2100, ALADIN, HIRHAM i RACMO models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, are also presented. For the observed 68‐year period (1951–2018), the trend calculations clearly show that the temperature is rising. This is indicated by all the analysed temperature parameters (TY, TW, TSp, TSu, TA, TYx, TYn, FD, ID, SU, TD, TR, T35+ and T40+). Although seasonal and annual precipitation totals do not show significant changes in the instrumental period, Podgorica's climate has become more arid and extreme, as the number of days with precipitation ≥1 mm (R1) has significantly decreased. Conversly, the number of days with precipitation has increased ≥40 and 50 mm (R40 and R50). The projected changes in the considered precipitation parameters are in most cases insignificant. The obtained results indicate that there is a high agreement between the temperatures projections of the three models used. Concerning precipitation, it appears that their modelling is more complex, because there are visible qualitative and quantitative differences in the projections of models of future changes in seasonal and annual sums (RY, RW, RSp, RSu and RA), that is, the number of precipitation days (R0.1, R1, R10, R20, R30, R40 and R50). The projections of the used models show that in the future we can expect a warmer climate with more extremes of temperature and precipitation in the grid area to which Podgorica belongs.

中文翻译：

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在仪器化时期（1951-2018年）温度和降水的变化以及波德戈里察（黑山）的预测到2100年

本文介绍了黑山首都波德戈里察在1951–2018年期间仪器化时期几个温度和降水参数的分析结果。为了使用为西巴尔干地区开发的多个区域气候模型（RCM）的最新结果，针对RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景的2011–2100年温度和降水模型，ALADIN，HIRHAM i RACMO模型的结果，也介绍了。对于观察到的68年期（1951-2018），趋势计算清楚地表明温度正在上升。所有分析的温度参数（TY，TW，TSp，TSu，TA，TYx，TYn，FD，ID，SU，TD，TR，T35 +和T40 +）都表明了这一点。尽管在工具期，季节性和年度降水总量没有显示出明显变化，但波德戈里察 随着降水量≥1 mm（R1）的天数显着减少，气候变得更加干旱和极端。相反，降水天数增加了≥40和50 mm（R40和R50）。在大多数情况下，所考虑的降水参数的预计变化并不明显。获得的结果表明，所使用的三个模型的温度预测之间存在高度一致性。关于降水，它们的建模似乎更为复杂，因为在季节和年度总和（RY，RW，RSp，RSu和RA）的未来变化模型的预测中存在明显的定性和定量差异，即数量降水天数（R0.1，R1，R10，R20，R30，R40和R50）。