This paper develops a framework for analyzing the dynamics through which cascading disasters evolve, spread and come to control in situations of uncertainty and vulnerability. The framework first establishes the idea that disasters are inherently a social phenomenon rooted in the social structure and reflects the processes of social change. The core of such social structures and processes is the mechanism of collective action. We then explain the ways in which formal mathematical models in general, and game theoretical models in particular, can help analyze the dynamics of collective action, detect the core parameters through which they evolve and, in particular, identify the interactions between these parameters. We show that these dynamics may have different forms of development, which are usually non-linear and cyclic. The framework also emphasizes the major role of information and social learning in these dynamics.

本文开发了一个框架，用于分析在不确定性和脆弱性情况下级联灾难演变，传播和控制的动态。该框架首先确立了这样一种思想，即灾害本质上是一种根植于社会结构中的社会现象，并反映了社会变革的过程。这种社会结构和过程的核心是集体行动的机制。然后，我们将解释一般形式数学模型（尤其是博弈论模型）可以如何帮助分析集体行动的动态，检测其演化的核心参数，尤其是确定这些参数之间的相互作用的方式。我们表明，这些动力学可能具有不同的发展形式，通常是非线性和周期性的。