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Semi-empirical predictive equations for the initial amplitude of submarine landslide-generated waves: applications to 1994 Skagway and 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunamis
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-21 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04050-4
Ramtin Sabeti , Mohammad Heidarzadeh

Accurate predictions of maximum initial wave amplitude are essential for coastal impact assessment of tsunami waves generated by submarine landslides. Here, we analyse the existing predictive equations for the maximum initial amplitude (\( \eta_{\text{max} } \)) of submarine landslide-generated waves and study their performance in reproducing real-world landslide incidents. Existing equations include various landslide parameters such as specific gravity (γs), initial submergence (d), slide length (B), width (w), thickness (T) and slope angle (θ). To determine how landslide parameters affect wave amplitude, we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that the slide volume (V = B × w × T) and d are among the most sensitive parameters. The data from the 1994 Skagway (observed \( \eta_{\text{max} } \): 1.0–2.0 m) and 1998 Papua New Guinea (PNG) (observed \( \eta_{\text{max} } \): 10–16 m) incidents provided valuable benchmarks for evaluating the performance of the existing equations. The predicted maximum initial amplitudes of 0.03–686.5 m and 3.7–6746.0 m were obtained for the 1994 and 1998 events, respectively, indicating a wide range for wave amplitudes. The predicted estimates for the smaller-sized event, i.e. the 1994 Skagway, appear to be more accurate than those made for the larger event, i.e. the 1998 PNG case. We develop a new predictive equation by fitting an equation to actual submarine landslide tsunamis: \( \eta_{ \text{max} } = 50.67 \left( {\frac{V}{d}} \right)^{0.34} \), where V is the slide volume (km3), d is initial submergence depth (m), and \( \eta_{\text{max} } \) is in metres. Our new equation gives wave amplitudes of 1.6 m and 7.8 m for the 1994 and 1998 landslide tsunamis, respectively, which are fairly consistent with real observations.



中文翻译:

海底滑坡产生波的初始振幅的半经验预测方程:在1994年史凯威和1998年巴布亚新几内亚海啸中的应用

对于海底滑坡产生的海啸波的沿海影响评估,最大初始波振幅的准确预测至关重要。在这里,我们分析了现有的海底滑坡产生波的最大初始振幅(\(\ eta \ {\ text {max}} \))的预测方程,并研究了它们在再现真实滑坡事件中的性能。现有方程包括各种滑坡参数,例如比重(γ小号),初始浸没(d),滑动长度(),宽度(瓦特),厚度(Ť)和倾斜角(θ)。为了确定滑坡参数如何影响波幅,我们进行了系统的灵敏度分析。结果表明,载玻片的体积(V  =  B  ×  w  ×  T)和d是最敏感的参数。1994年史凯威(观察到的\(\ eta _ {\ text {max}} \):1.0–2.0 m)和1998年巴布亚新几内亚(PNG)(观察到的\(\ eta _ {\ text {max}} \)的数据:10–16 m)事件为评估现有方程组的性能提供了宝贵的基准。1994年和1998年事件的预测最大初始振幅分别为0.03-686.5 m和3.7-6746.0 m,表明波幅范围很宽。较小事件(即1994年史凯威)的预测估计似乎比较大事件(即1998年PNG案例)的预测估计更准确。我们通过将方程拟合到实际海底滑坡海啸中来开发新的预测方程:\(\ eta_ {\ text {max}} = 50.67 \ left({\ frac {V} {d}} \ right)^ {0.34} \ ),其中V是滑坡量(km 3),d是初始潜水深度(m),\(\ eta _ {\ text {max}} \)在米。我们的新方程给出的1994年和1998年滑坡海啸的波幅分别为1.6 m和7.8 m,这与实际观测值相当一致。

更新日期:2020-05-21
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