In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation.

在这项研究中，我们将天气研究和预报模型用于预测2050年的城乡温度。我们应用了时间分层分析，将其与2001年至2014年以及2011年至2014年之间的死亡率进行比较，以估算2050年高温事件的风险增加。我们将白天相对于夜间的变化以及城市相对于农村的温度变化作为预测死亡率的因素，以评估气候变化对死亡风险的潜在影响。在2050年的高温事件中，最高和最低气温预计分别升高2.9°C和2.6°C，白天和黑夜的温度分别比2001-2014年高9.8°C和4.9°C。与2001-2014年（IRR 1.721 [1.650，1.796]）和2011-2014年（IRR 1.622 [1.547，1。701]），而不考虑温度变化。考虑到温度变化后，农村地区最高温度的变化将在2050年引发最高的死亡风险，这可能是由于整个城市的快速城市化所致，而第二高的死亡风险是由于城市化的最低温度的变化所致。因为在夏季，城市中的当地居民已经适应了最大的城市热应激水平。缓解气候变化迫切需要改进热量预警系统和可持续计划协议。第二高的死亡率风险是由于城市化地区最低温度的变化而引起的，这可能是因为在夏季，城市中的当地居民已经适应了最大的城市热应激水平。缓解气候变化迫切需要改进热量预警系统和可持续计划协议。第二高的死亡风险是由于城市化地区最低温度的变化而引起的，这可能是因为在夏季，城市中的当地居民已经适应了最大的城市热应激水平。缓解气候变化迫切需要改进热量预警系统和可持续计划协议。