Context Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture the dynamics of habitat elements across both spatial and temporal domains. Incorporating these dynamics at landscape scales is essential for understanding the impact of natural disturbance, management, and climate change on habitat availability and stability on fauna. Objectives To explore the impact of resource availability, wildfire, forest management (timber harvesting and planned burning), and climate change on the habitat of the critically endangered Leadbeater’s possum (LBP; Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy) with the goal of understanding the importance of these factors on future habitat availability. Methods We used a spatially explicit landscape-simulation model, LANDIS-II, linked to habitat suitability and patch modelling, to identify quantity, configuration, and temporal stability of habitat for LBP. We used boosted regression trees and general additive modelling to explore the importance of management and disturbance factors on future LBP habitat availability. Results Wildfire was the main factor determining all habitat components for LBP, both alone and in interaction with climate change and forest management. We identified stable habitat patches that will likely persist under future conditions, and that might be prioritised for conservation in a dynamic landscape. Conclusions We highlight how the current reserve network could be augmented to improve the future conservation status of LBP. Our approach provides conservation planners with a spatially and temporally explicit framework for incorporating the key dynamic processes that are typically omitted in conservation planning.

中文翻译：

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极度濒危的树栖有袋动物栖息地可用性和稳定性的时空动态：对易发生​​火灾的景观保护规划的影响

背景 有效的物种保护规划取决于能够捕捉跨空间和时间域的栖息地要素动态的植被模型。将这些动态纳入景观尺度对于理解自然干扰、管理和气候变化对栖息地可用性和动物群稳定性的影响至关重要。目标 探索资源可用性、野火、森林管理（木材采伐和计划燃烧）和气候变化对极度濒危的负鼠（LBP；Gymnobelideus Leadbeateri McCoy）栖息地的影响，目的是了解这些因素的重要性关于未来栖息地的可用性。方法 我们使用空间明确的景观模拟模型 LANDIS-II，与栖息地适宜性和斑块建模相关联，以识别数量、LBP 栖息地的配置和时间稳定性。我们使用增强回归树和一般加法模型来探索管理和干扰因素对未来 LBP 栖息地可用性的重要性。结果 野火是决定 LBP 的所有栖息地组成部分的主要因素，无论是单独的还是与气候变化和森林管理的相互作用。我们确定了稳定的栖息地斑块，这些斑块在未来的条件下可能会持续存在，并且可能会在动态景观中优先保护。结论 我们强调了如何扩大当前的保护区网络以改善 LBP 的未来保护状况。我们的方法为保护规划者提供了一个空间和时间明确的框架，用于整合保护规划中通常会忽略的关键动态过程。