Climate change is a global challenge having a significant potential to alter crop yields worldwide. Thus, the determination of crop yield is important in the prospect of food security for agro-economic regions like Pakistan especially in the upcoming decades. Therefore, the focus of this research was to investigate the historical and projected spatial and temporal changes in climatic parameters, and their impacts on cotton and sugarcane yield in the southeast region of Punjab, Pakistan, by the Mann-Kendall test for baseline (1981–2015) as well as projected (2020–2099) periods. ArcGIS was used to check the spatial variation in climatic parameters between the four climatic stations of south Punjab. Two regional climatic models, the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator version 1 and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, were used with two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. It was found that the total amount of precipitation can be more than the baseline by 47–68 mm. However, precipitation trends were inconsistent. In summary, there seems to be strong evidence that climate change is influencing especially the temperature trends which were statistically significant in this region. As compared with baseline, the maximum temperature is likely to increase from 2 to 4 °C, and the minimum temperature can increase from 3 to 6 °C until the end of this century. Changes in temperatures can reduce crop yield especially cotton and sugarcane up to 6% and 16% per annum, respectively, until far future.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对巴基斯坦经济作物产量的影响

气候变化是一项全球挑战，具有改变全球农作物产量的巨大潜力。因此，确定作物产量对于巴基斯坦等农业经济区的粮食安全前景至关重要，尤其是在未来几十年中。因此，本研究的重点是通过Mann-Kendall基线检验（1981年至1981年，气候参数的历史和预期时空变化，及其对巴基斯坦旁遮普东南部地区棉花和甘蔗产量的影响）。 2015年）以及预计的（2020-2099年）期间。ArcGIS被用来检查旁遮普南部四个气候站之间气候参数的空间变化。两种区域气候模式 澳大利亚共同体气候和地球系统模拟器第1版以及英联邦科学和工业研究组织的共形立方大气模型用于两个代表性的浓缩途径（RCP）：RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5。研究发现，降水总量可以比基线多47-68 mm。但是，降水趋势不一致。总而言之，似乎有强有力的证据表明气候变化正在影响特别是该地区具有统计学意义的温度趋势。与基线相比，直到本世纪末，最高温度可能会从2°C升高到4°C，最低温度可能会从3°C升高到6°C。温度的变化会降低农作物的产量，尤其是棉花和甘蔗，每年分别降低6％和16％，