Abstract

Background

Previous studies reported that prostate cancer incidence rates in the United States declined for local-stage disease and increased for regional- and distant-stage disease following the US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations against prostate-specific antigen-based screening for men aged 75 years and older in 2008 and for all men in 2012. It is unknown, however, whether these patterns persisted through 2016.

Methods

Based on the US Cancer Statistics Public Use Research Database, we examined temporal trends in invasive prostate cancer incidence from 2005 to 2016 in men aged 50 years and older stratified by stage (local, regional, and distant), age group (50-74 years and 75 years and older), and race and ethnicity (all races and ethnicities, non-Hispanic Whites, and non-Hispanic Blacks) with joinpoint regression models to estimate annual percent changes. Tests of statistical significance are 2-sided (P < .05).

Results

For all races and ethnicities combined, incidence for local-stage disease declined beginning in 2007 in men aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older, although the decline stabilized during 2013-2016 in men aged 75 years and older. Incidence decreased by 6.4% (95% CI = 4.9%-9% to 7.9%) per year from 2007 to 2016 in men aged 50-74 years and by 10.7% (95% CI = 6.2% to 15.0%) per year from 2007 to 2013 in men aged 75 years and older. In contrast, incidence for regional- and distant-stage disease increased in both age groups during the study period. For example, distant-stage incidence in men aged 75 years and older increased by 5.2% (95% CI = 4.2% to 6.1%) per year from 2010 to 2016.

Conclusions

Regional- and distant-stage prostate cancer incidence continue to increase in the United States in men aged 50 years and older, and future studies are needed to identify reasons for the rising trends.

中文翻译：

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美国预防服务工作队针对筛查的建议提出5年后的前列腺癌发病率。

摘要

背景

先前的研究报道，在美国预防服务工作队针对75岁以上男性进行前列腺特异性抗原筛查的建议之后，美国针对局部阶段疾病的前列腺癌发病率有所下降，而针对局部和远期阶段疾病的前列腺癌发病率则有所上升。在2008年和2012年所有男性中年龄较大。但是，这些模式是否持续到2016年仍是未知的。

方法

根据美国癌症统计局公共用途研究数据库，我们研究了按年龄段（本地，区域和远距离），年龄段（50-74岁）分层的50岁以上男性从2005年到2016年的浸润性前列​​腺癌发病率的时间趋势。以及75岁及以上的人），种族和种族（所有种族和种族，非西班牙裔白人和非西班牙裔黑人），并采用联合点回归模型来估算年度百分比变化。具有统计学意义的检验是两面的（P  <.05）。

结果

对于所有种族和族裔，从2007年开始，年龄在50-74岁和75岁以上的男性的局部疾病发病率开始下降，尽管在2013-2016年期间，年龄在75岁及以上的男性稳定下来。从2007年到2016年，年龄在50-74岁之间的男性的发病率每年下降6.4％（95％CI = 4.9％-9％至7.9％），而从2007年到2016年每年下降10.7％（95％CI = 6.2％至15.0％） 2007年至2013年，年龄在75岁以上的男性。相反，在研究期间，这两个年龄段的地区和远期疾病的发病率均增加。例如，从2010年到2016年，年龄在75岁及以上的男性的远期发病率每年增加5.2％（95％CI = 4.2％至6.1％）。

结论

在美国，地区性和远期前列腺癌的发病率在50岁及以上的男性中持续增加，因此需要进行进一步的研究以确定上升趋势的原因。