CORONAVIRUS In some quarters, it is hoped that increased humidity and higher temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere in the summer will snuff out the 2020 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. In reality, the situation is likely to be more complicated than that. Baker et al. used a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, testing different scenarios of climate dependence based on known coronavirus biology. Levels of susceptibility among the population remain the driving factor for the pandemic, and without effective control measures, the pandemic will persist in the coming months, causing severe outbreaks even in humid climates. Summer will not substantially limit pandemic growth. Science this issue p. 315 A high proportion of susceptible people in a population is likely to outweigh any moderating effects of summer weather on virus transmission. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

中文翻译：

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易感供应限制了气候在早期 SARS-CoV-2 大流行中的作用

冠状病毒 在某些方面，希望夏季北半球湿度增加和温度升高能够扼杀 2020 年严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 大流行。实际上，情况可能比这更复杂。贝克等人。使用气候依赖流行模型来模拟 SARS-CoV-2 大流行，基于已知的冠状病毒生物学测试气候依赖的不同场景。人群易感程度仍然是大流行的驱动因素，如果没有有效的控制措施，大流行将在未来几个月持续存在，即使在潮湿的气候下也会造成严重的爆发。夏季不会大幅限制流行病的增长。科学这个问题 p。315 人口中高比例的易感人群很可能超过夏季天气对病毒传播的任何缓和影响。初步证据表明，气候可能会调节严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的传播。然而，鉴于高度易感性是一个核心驱动因素，气候的季节性和地理变化是否会显着改变大流行轨迹仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用依赖于气候的流行病模型通过探索基于已知冠状病毒生物学的不同场景来模拟 SARS-CoV-2 大流行。我们发现，尽管天气变化可能对地方性感染很重要，但在新出现病原体的大流行阶段，气候只会导致大流行规模的适度变化。对非药物控制措施的初步分析表明，它们可能通过易感消耗来缓和大流行与气候的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明，如果没有有效的控制措施，更潮湿的气候中很可能会发生强烈的疫情，而夏季天气将不会实质性地限制大流行的增长。