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Source estimation of an unexpected release of Ruthenium-106 in 2017 using an inverse modelling approach.
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106304
Luke M Western 1 , Sarah C Millington 2 , Anastasia Benfield-Dexter 1 , Claire S Witham 2
Affiliation  

For the first time since the Chernobyl accident, detectable concentrations of ruthenium-106 were measured across Europe in September and October 2017. The source of this radioactive cloud remains unconfirmed. In this paper we present a forensic inverse modelling study to simultaneously estimate the source location, timing and magnitude of the unexpected ruthenium-106 release using 473 measurements of atmospheric concentration. To do this, we introduce a novel method, which estimates the uncertainty in the often unknown transport error using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. We corroborate the conclusions of other studies which suggest the source location is in the Southern Ural region of Russia, where the Mayak nuclear complex is located. Assuming that the Mayak nuclear complex is the most plausible release location, the method estimates that 441±13 TBq was released 12:00–18:00 UTC 24 September 2017, assuming a six hour release window.



中文翻译:

使用逆模型方法估算2017年Ruthenium-106的意外释放。

自切尔诺贝利事故以来,这是自2017年9月和2017年10月以来在欧洲范围内首次测量到可检测到的钌106浓度。这种放射性云的来源尚未确认。在本文中,我们进行了一次取证逆模型研究,以使用473个大气浓度测量值,同时估算出意外的钌106释放的来源位置,时间和大小。为此,我们引入了一种新颖的方法,该方法使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法估算通常未知的运输错误中的不确定性。我们证实了其他研究的结论,这些结论表明来源位于俄罗斯的南部乌拉尔地区,那里是Mayak核电站所在地。假设Mayak核联合体是最合理的释放地点,该方法估计441±13 TBq于2017年9月24日UTC于12:00–18:00发布,假设发布时间为6小时。

更新日期:2020-05-19
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