Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Here, we use a feature-tracking technique to investigate the dynamical contribution to temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in climate-change simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a simple theory to explain how temperature variance and skewness changes are generated dynamically from mean temperature gradient changes, and demonstrate the crucial role of regional warming patterns in shaping the distinct response of cold and warm anomalies. We also show that skewness changes must be taken into account, in addition to variance changes, to correctly capture the projected temperature variability response. Our findings suggest that the world may experience not only a warmer mean climate in the coming decades, but also changes in the likelihood of temperature anomalies within that climate.

全球变暖不仅涉及平均大气温度的变化，还涉及其变化性和极端性。在这里，我们使用特征跟踪技术来研究耦合模型比较项目–阶段5（CMIP5）在气候变化模拟中对北半球温度异常的动力学贡献。我们建立了一个简单的理论来解释如何从平均温度梯度变化动态地产生温度变化和偏斜度变化，并证明区域变暖模式在塑造冷暖异常的独特响应中的关键作用。我们还表明，除了方差变化外，还必须考虑偏斜度变化，以正确捕获预计的温度变化响应。