Abstract This paper investigates the effect of commodity prices, in particular rice and coffee, on the decision of migrating at the individual level. As most coffee production is sold by households for exports, we would expect that coffee price shocks would have a direct effect on the probability to migrate. On the other hand, we would anticipate that fluctuations in rice prices have little or no effect on migration decisions, given that rice is mainly produced for household consumption. We test these hypotheses drawing evidence from migration in Viet Nam. We show that the lower the price of coffee, the higher the likelihood of migrating. This evidence seems to suggest that migration acts as a shock-coping strategy. We find that rice prices have no effect on the probability of migrating. We further explore the extent of migrants’ self-selection and show that lower coffee prices increase the migration probability of individuals with lower education.

中文翻译：

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转载：作物价格和个人迁移决定

摘要 本文研究了商品价格，特别是大米和咖啡的价格对个人迁移决策的影响。由于大多数咖啡产品由家庭出售用于出口，我们预计咖啡价格冲击将对迁移的可能性产生直接影响。另一方面，我们预计大米价格的波动对移民决定影响很小或没有影响，因为大米主要用于家庭消费。我们从越南的移民中提取证据来检验这些假设。我们表明，咖啡的价格越低，迁移的可能性就越大。这一证据似乎表明，移民是一种应对冲击的策略。我们发现大米价格对迁移概率没有影响。