The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction.

气候变化和城市化的迅速发展引起的极端降水事件给城市带来了潜在的洪灾风险。本文综合考虑了城市防洪脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的两个主要因素，建立了城市防洪风险综合评价指标体系。其次，建立了由复合模糊物元和熵权模型组成的组合模型，以计算综合风险指标。最后以郑州市为例，对2006-2015年城市承载洪水风险的综合指标进行了评价。结果表明，郑州市的综合风险总体呈缓慢上升趋势，从2006年的II级（中等风险）到2015年的III级（中等高风险），主要是由于城市化的快速发展与DPAM能力的缓慢提高之间的不匹配。有望为城市防洪防灾和海绵城市建设提供科学的参考和技术支持。