The circular economy is argued to hold great promise for achieving sustainability. Yet, there is a dearth of research about what a circular future may look like. To address this gap, this paper proposes different plausible scenarios for a circular future, using a 2 × 2 scenario matrix method developed through a thought experiment and a focus group. Key drivers of change in this matrix are the nature of technologies deployed – high-tech or low-tech innovations – and the configuration of the governance regime – centralized or decentralized. From this, our paper builds four scenario narratives for the future of a circular economy: “planned circularity”, “bottom-up sufficiency”, “circular modernism”, and “peer-to-peer circularity”. It delineates the core characteristics and the upsides and downsides of each scenario. It shows that a circular economy can be organized in very contrasting ways. By generating insights about alternative circular futures, these scenarios may provide a clearer directionality to policy-makers and businesses, helping them both anticipate and understand the consequences of a paradigm shift towards a circular economy and shape policies and strategies, especially in the context of so-called mission-oriented innovation policies. They may also provide a sound basis for quantitatively modelling the impacts of a circular economy.

中文翻译：

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循环期货：它们会是什么样子？

循环经济被认为在实现可持续性方面有很大的希望。然而，缺乏关于循环未来可能是什么样子的研究。为了解决这一差距，本文使用通过思想实验和焦点小组开发的 2 × 2 情景矩阵方法为循环未来提出了不同的合理情景。该矩阵变化的关键驱动因素是所部署技术的性质——高科技或低技术创新——以及治理制度的配置——集中或分散。据此，我们的论文为循环经济的未来构建了四种情景叙述：“计划循环”、“自下而上的充足”、“循环现代主义”和“点对点循环”。它描述了每个场景的核心特征和优缺点。它表明循环经济可以以截然不同的方式组织。通过产生关于替代循环未来的见解，这些情景可以为决策者和企业提供更清晰的方向，帮助他们预测和理解向循环经济转变的范式的后果，并制定政策和战略，尤其是在这样的背景下——称为以任务为导向的创新政策。它们还可以为定量模拟循环经济的影响提供良好的基础。帮助他们预测和理解范式向循环经济转变的后果，并制定政策和战略，尤其是在所谓的以任务为导向的创新政策的背景下。它们还可以为定量模拟循环经济的影响提供良好的基础。帮助他们预测和理解范式向循环经济转变的后果，并制定政策和战略，尤其是在所谓的以任务为导向的创新政策的背景下。它们还可以为定量模拟循环经济的影响提供良好的基础。