The explicit quantification and spatial mapping of the ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand associated with land use changes can provide relevant insights for enhancing land management. However, few advancements and efforts have been applied to science policy processes and land management optimization because most studies to date neglected the supply-demand coupling mechanism. This paper considers the YanHe watershed to propose a comprehensive framework quantifying the supply, demand and spatial flow of the water provision service associated with land use changes. The results showed that land use changes had important effects on both the supply side and the demand side of the water provision service. The water provision service has significant spatial mismatches between water supply and water demand. A high water supply occurred in the upper and lower reaches, while a high water demand was distributed in the urban districts. We mapped and determined the spatial flow process of the water provision service now and in the future. The results highlight the need to fully understand the importance of service flow for improving the water security patterns of benefiting areas. This study provides a scientific basis for watershed policymakers to optimize land management and reduce water deficits and mismatches.

与土地利用变化有关的生态系统服务（ES）供需的明确量化和空间映射可以为加强土地管理提供相关见解。但是，由于迄今为止大多数研究都忽略了供需耦合机制，因此很少有进展和努力应用于科学政策过程和土地管理优化。本文认为延河流域提出了一个综合框架，对与土地利用变化相关的供水服务的供应，需求和空间流量进行量化。结果表明，土地利用变化对供水服务的供应方和需求方都有重要影响。供水服务在供水和需水之间存在明显的空间失配。上游和下游供水量很大，而市区则分配了高水量。我们绘制了地图，并确定了现在和将来供水服务的空间流程。结果强调需要充分了解服务流程对于改善受益地区的水安全模式的重要性。该研究为流域政策制定者优化土地管理，减少缺水和错配提供了科学依据。