The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan‐Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots—regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS—were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan‐Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high‐risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

中文翻译：

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什么地方？预测北极海洋领域的入侵热点。

随着气候变暖，该地区航运活动增加和资源开发，预计北极地区水生生物入侵的风险将增加。确定了在加拿大北极地区具有最大入侵和影响潜力的浮游生物和底栖海洋水生入侵物种（AIS），并建模了23个风险最高的物种，以预测其在泛北极和全球范围内的潜在空间分布。在当前环境条件和两个中期未来（2050年和2100年）全球变暖情景下进行了建模。入侵热点位于哈德逊湾，北部大银行/拉布拉多，楚科奇/东部白令海和巴伦支/白海，是预计在北极地区栖息地适合大量潜在AIS的地区，这表明这些地区可能更容易受到入侵。在全球范围内，底栖生物和浮游生物在适当的生境中都显示出未来的极移。在整个北极地区，所有生物在未来条件下都显示出适当的栖息地增长。然而，在全球范围内，某些类群，特别是大多数浮游物种，预计在热带地区栖息地将减少。这项研究的结果有助于在北极海洋生态系统面临气候变化时优先安排管理工作。此外，这种特殊方法还提供了信息，以识别AIS应对全球变暖的当前和未来高风险区域。在未来条件下，所有生物都显示出适当的栖息地增长。然而，在全球范围内，某些类群，特别是大多数浮游物种，预计将在更多的热带地区丧失栖息地。这项研究的结果有助于在北极海洋生态系统面临气候变化时优先安排管理工作。此外，这种特殊方法还提供了信息，以识别AIS应对全球变暖的当前和未来高风险区域。在未来条件下，所有生物都显示出合适的栖息地。然而，在全球范围内，某些类群，特别是大多数浮游物种，预计将在更多的热带地区丧失栖息地。这项研究的结果有助于在北极海洋生态系统面临气候变化时优先安排管理工作。此外，这种特殊方法还提供了信息，以识别应对全球变暖的AIS当前和未来的高风险区域。