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Extreme rainfall event in the Northeast coast of Brazil: a numerical sensitivity study
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s00703-020-00747-0
Alcimoni Nelci Comin , Flavio Justino , Luciano Pezzi , Carlos Diego de Sousa Gurjão , Vanúcia Shumacher , Alfonso Fernández , Ueslei Adriano Sutil

This study investigates an extreme rainfall event which occurred in Northern Brazil (NEB) between 20 and 30th 2017 May causing several deaths and making thousands homeless. Based on a suite of microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes based on the WRF model, it is demonstrated that anomalous weather conditions are characterized by significant upward and eastward wind flow. Omega differences with respect to climatological conditions showed values up to − 0.04 Pa/s and wind up to 6–8 m/s in consonance with higher precipitation in May in the NEB coast. The cumulative rainfall for 11 days was higher than 500 mm in some locations, as measured by weather stations. These conditions were simulated by the WRF model under different physics parameterization schemes. In total 24 experiments with WRF were implemented. Non-local PBL demonstrated better performance than the local PBL. Moreover, the rainfall was concentrated in small portions of the region, and the local scheme limited the WRF conditions to estimate the correct maximum precipitation location. The Morrison scheme performed better compared to the other schemes. Results presented here show that the correct choices of the microphysics and PBL parameterizations are fundamental to obtain good simulation/forecast, especially for extreme rainfall events. This study demonstrates that regional modeling is crucial to provide accurate information to forecasters and decision makers to plan actions which hamper catastrophic situations such as landslides and floods in high-risk regions.

中文翻译:

巴西东北海岸极端降雨事件:数值敏感性研究

本研究调查了 2017 年 5 月 20 日至 30 日发生在巴西北部 (NEB) 的极端降雨事件,该事件导致数人死亡并导致数千人无家可归。基于一套基于 WRF 模型的微物理学和行星边界层 (PBL) 方案,证明异常天气条件的特征是显着的向上和向东风流。欧米茄在气候条件方面的差异显示值高达 − 0.04 Pa/s,风速高达 6-8 m/s,与 5 月 NEB 海岸降水量增加相一致。据气象站测量,部分地区11天的累计降雨量超过500毫米。这些条件由 WRF 模型在不同的物理参数化方案下模拟。总共实施了 24 次 WRF 实验。非本地 PBL 表现出比本地 PBL 更好的性能。此外,降雨集中在该地区的小部分地区,当地计划限制了 WRF 条件,以估计正确的最大降水位置。与其他方案相比,Morrison 方案表现更好。此处显示的结果表明,微物理和 PBL 参数化的正确选择是获得良好模拟/预测的基础,尤其是对于极端降雨事件。本研究表明,区域建模对于为预报员和决策者提供准确信息以规划阻止高风险地区发生山体滑坡和洪水等灾难性情况的行动至关重要。当地计划限制了 WRF 条件以估计正确的最大降水位置。与其他方案相比,Morrison 方案表现更好。此处显示的结果表明,微物理和 PBL 参数化的正确选择是获得良好模拟/预测的基础,尤其是对于极端降雨事件。本研究表明,区域建模对于为预报员和决策者提供准确信息以规划阻止高风险地区发生山体滑坡和洪水等灾难性情况的行动至关重要。当地计划限制了 WRF 条件以估计正确的最大降水位置。与其他方案相比,Morrison 方案表现更好。此处显示的结果表明,微物理和 PBL 参数化的正确选择是获得良好模拟/预测的基础,尤其是对于极端降雨事件。本研究表明,区域建模对于为预报员和决策者提供准确信息以规划阻止高风险地区发生山体滑坡和洪水等灾难性情况的行动至关重要。此处显示的结果表明,微物理和 PBL 参数化的正确选择是获得良好模拟/预测的基础,尤其是对于极端降雨事件。本研究表明,区域建模对于为预报员和决策者提供准确信息以规划阻止高风险地区发生山体滑坡和洪水等灾难性情况的行动至关重要。此处显示的结果表明,微物理和 PBL 参数化的正确选择是获得良好模拟/预测的基础,尤其是对于极端降雨事件。本研究表明,区域建模对于为预报员和决策者提供准确信息以规划阻止高风险地区发生山体滑坡和洪水等灾难性情况的行动至关重要。
更新日期:2020-05-13
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