Frogs have been harvested from the wild for the last 40 years in Turkey. We analysed the population dynamics of Anatolian water frogs (Pelophylax spp.) in the Seyhan and Ceyhan Deltas during 2013–2015. We marked a total of 13,811 individuals during 3 years, estimated population sizes, simulated the dynamics of a harvested population over 50 years, and collated frog harvest and export statistics from the region and for Turkey as a whole. Our capture estimates indicated a population reduction of c. 20% per year, and our population modelling showed that, if overharvesting continues at current rates, the harvested populations will decline rapidly. Simulations with a model of harvested population dynamics resulted in a risk of extinction of > 90% within 50 years, with extinction likely in c. 2032. Our interviews with harvesters revealed their economic dependence on the frog harvest. However, our results also showed that reducing harvest rates would not only ensure the viability of these frog populations but would also provide a source of income that is sustainable in the long term. Our study provides insights into the position of Turkey in the ‘extinction domino’ line, in which harvest pressure shifts among countries as frog populations are depleted and harvest bans are effected. We recommend that harvesting of wild frogs should be banned during the mating season, hunting and exporting of frogs < 30 g should be banned, and harvesters should be trained on species knowledge and awareness of regulations.

中文翻译：

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土耳其南部为欧洲市场收获不可持续的水蛙

过去 40 年来，土耳其一直在野外收获青蛙。我们分析了安纳托利亚水蛙的种群动态（鲢鱼spp.) 在 2013-2015 年期间在 Seyhan 和 Ceyhan 三角洲。我们在 3 年内共标记了 13,811 个人，估计了种群规模，模拟了 50 年收获种群的动态，并整理了该地区和整个土耳其的青蛙收获和出口统计数据。我们的捕获估计表明人口减少了c。每年 20%，我们的人口模型显示，如果以目前的速度继续过度捕捞，收获的人口将迅速下降。使用收获种群动态模型进行的模拟导致 50 年内灭绝的风险 > 90%，灭绝可能在 c。2032. 我们对收割者的采访揭示了他们对收获青蛙的经济依赖。然而，我们的研究结果还表明，降低收获率不仅可以确保这些青蛙种群的生存能力，还可以提供长期可持续的收入来源。我们的研究提供了对土耳其在“灭绝多米诺骨牌”线上的位置的见解，其中随着青蛙种群的枯竭和收获禁令的影响，各国之间的收获压力发生了变化。建议在交配季节禁止捕捞野生蛙类，禁止捕猎和出口<30克的蛙类，并对采集者进行物种知识和法规意识培训。随着青蛙种群的枯竭和收获禁令的实施，收获压力在国家之间转移。建议在交配季节禁止捕捞野生蛙类，禁止捕猎和出口<30克的蛙类，并对采集者进行物种知识和法规意识培训。随着青蛙种群的枯竭和收获禁令的实施，收获压力在国家之间转移。建议在交配季节禁止捕捞野生蛙类，禁止捕猎和出口<30克的蛙类，并对采集者进行物种知识和法规意识培训。