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Community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?
Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift-Norwegian Journal of Geography ( IF 1.977 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-26 , DOI: 10.1080/00291951.2019.1692066
Susan L. Cutter 1
Affiliation  

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.



中文翻译:

社区适应力,自然灾害和气候变化:现在是未来的序幕吗?

自然灾害,气候变化和社区适应力之间的联系带来了概念上和方法上的挑战。一个重要的考虑因素是影响社区复原力的系统(社会系统,自然系统,技术系统)中动态变化或转换的基本概念,以及相互依存程度影响谁具有弹性,对什么,在何处以及对谁的影响程度。本文从富裕社会的广泛角度考察了社区的适应能力,并说明了短期内社区对自然灾害的适应能力在时间和空间上存在很大的变化,而长期来看,尤其是在较富裕的社会中,气候变化具有很大的变化性。作者发现,鉴于环境,社会,经济,政治,技术和文化变革的迅速发展,当前的情况和补救措施可能不足以作为未来状况的预测或先兆。她的结论是,如果要在大幅减少灾害风险和在极端天气事件成为常态的情况下实现可持续的未来方面取得成就,则与社区适应力,自然灾害和气候变化相关的挑战需要转变思维和采取行动,也不例外。

更新日期:2019-11-26
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