ABSTRACT Growth Simulation, an analytical modeling technique, has been increasingly used in ecological studies and practical forestry applications where dendrochronology is not applicable. The technique uses randomly sampled diameter increments from tagged trees over a known time interval to assemble a statistical sample of lifetime growth trajectories. We carried out a validation of Growth Simulation using a temperate species in order to compare indirect model outputs with direct tree ring analysis. Rings were measured on sample disks cut from 55 pine branches ranging in age from 8–36 years. Assessments included lifetime growth rates, growth rate with respect to diameter and age, periodic annual increment (PAI), cross-referencing of rings by date, and autocorrelation of growth over successive periods. Tree ring analysis and Growth Simulation showed close correspondence for all parameters tested (maximum, median, and minimum growth rates; longevity estimates). Growth Simulation is found to be a robust and informative technique for studies of tropical tree growth, and is especially useful where analysis of tree rings is not feasible or when bootstrapping analysis of ring data is of interest.

中文翻译：

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热带树木的生长和寿命：生长模拟验证，一个引导模型

摘要 生长模拟是一种分析建模技术，已越来越多地用于生态研究和实际林业应用，其中树木年代学不适用。该技术使用在已知时间间隔内从标记树中随机采样的直径增量来组装生命周期增长轨迹的统计样本。我们使用温带物种对生长模拟进行了验证，以便将间接模型输出与直接年轮分析进行比较。在从 8-36 岁不等的 55 根松枝上切下的样品圆盘上测量年轮。评估包括终生增长率、相对于直径和年龄的增长率、周期性年增量 (PAI)、按日期交叉引用环以及连续时期增长的自相关。年轮分析和生长模拟显示所有测试参数（最大、中值和最小增长率；寿命估计）密切对应。生长模拟被认为是研究热带树木生长的强大且信息丰富的技术，尤其适用于无法分析树木年轮或需要对年轮数据进行自举分析的情况。