ABSTRACT Myocastor coypus is a large semi-aquatic rodent ranked as one of the 100 most invasive species in the world. In Brazil, few ecological studies have been proposed to understand the relationship of this species with the environment. To date, drivers that facilitate its establishment in new areas remain unknown. However, it is generally accepted that the natural distribution of this species is limited to far southern Brazil. The present study aimed to understand the geographic distribution of M. coypus and indicate areas of greater risk of establishment based on bioclimatic predictors and a surveillance map. We observed that M. coypus suitability and risk assessment areas are restricted to the southeastern and southern regions of Brazil and that anthropogenic landscape modifications are an adequate variable to explain the occurrence of the species. Due to the environmental impacts caused by this species, monitoring in environments where it has been introduced is required. The model used herein presented efficient applicability and fit for Brazil. Preventive actions and the management of M. coypus in predicted regions prior to its establishment are recommended.

中文翻译：

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巴西海狸鼠（哺乳动物、啮齿类动物）地理分布建模：建立优先监测区域和入侵风险警报

摘要 Myocastor coypus 是一种大型半水生啮齿动物，被列为世界上 100 种最具入侵性的物种之一。在巴西，很少有人提出生态研究来了解该物种与环境的关系。迄今为止，促进其在新领域建立的驱动因素仍然未知。然而，人们普遍认为该物种的自然分布仅限于巴西南部。本研究旨在了解海狸鼠的地理分布，并根据生物气候预测因子和监测图指出存在较大风险的区域。我们观察到 M. 海狸鼠适宜性和风险评估区域仅限于巴西东南部和南部地区，人为景观改变是解释该物种发生的充分变量。由于该物种造成的环境影响，需要在引入它的环境中进行监测。此处使用的模型对巴西具有高效的适用性和适用性。建议在其建立之前在预测区域采取预防措施和管理海狸鼠。