In this paper, 153 samples of heavy metals in the soil of a coal chemical plant in Northwest China were collected in the study area to predict and evaluate the human health risks of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr(VI)), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg) in the soil of the plant area in 2021, 2026, and 2031 and their change laws by referring to the “Soil Environmental Capacity Model,” “Technical Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Contaminated Sites” and USEPA recommended model. In addition, Kriging interpolation method is introduced to generate the plant risk assessment map from the risk assessment of limited points. The assessment study showed: the carcinogenic risks of As, Cr(VI), and Cd will all exceed the acceptable risk limit of 1.00E-06 at the year of 2021, and their average risk level will reach 2.300E-05, 4.878E-06, and 7.455E-05, respectively, at the year of 2031; the non-carcinogenic risk of As has already exceeded the acceptable risk limit of 1.0, while the hazard quotients of Cr(VI), Cd, Pb, and Hg are within the limit; the plant area should focus on the harm of the accumulation of As and Cd to the human body, and prevent the pollution of groundwater by Cr (VI); the health risk map shows that the Power Unit and its downwind direction (open space in southeast area) are the core high-risk areas of the entire plant, including the Logistics Exits and Coal Transportation Corridor. The highest carcinogenic risk value of the core area in 2031 is 8.572E-05, which is caused by Cr (VI); the oral intake is the main exposure pathway of the heavy metal pollution. Personnel working in Power Units, Logistic Exits, Coal Transportation Corridors and nearby vehicle corridors should wear specialized protective clothing and masks to reduce or block potential health risks. No doubt the clarification made in this research on the change rule and risk distribution of heavy metals can provide a scientific basis of theoretical reference for the prevention and protection of heavy metals in soil of the coal chemical plant.

本文在研究区采集了153家西北某煤化工厂土壤中的重金属样品，以预测和评估砷（As），镉（Cd），铬（Cr（VI ）），2021、2026和2031年植物区域土壤中的铅（Pb）和汞（Hg）及其变化规律，请参考“土壤环境容量模型”，“受污染风险评估技术准则”网站”和USEPA推荐的型号。此外，引入了克里格插值法，从有限点的风险评估中生成工厂风险评估图。评估研究显示：到2021年，As，Cr（VI）和Cd的致癌风险都将超过可接受的风险极限1.00E-06，其平均风险水平将达到2.300E-05、4.878E -06和7.455E-05，分别在2031年；砷的非致癌风险已超过可接受的风险限值1.0，而六价铬，镉，铅和汞的危害系数均在限值范围内；种植区域应关注砷和镉的积累对人体的危害，并防止六价铬对地下水的污染；健康风险图显示，动力装置及其顺风方向（东南区域的开放空间）是整个工厂的核心高风险区域，包括物流出口和煤炭运输走廊。2031年核心区域的最高致癌风险值为8.572E-05，这是由六价铬（Cr）引起的。口腔摄入是重金属污染的主要暴露途径。动力部门的人员，后勤出口，煤炭运输走廊和附近的车辆走廊应穿着专门的防护服和口罩，以减少或阻止潜在的健康风险。无疑，本研究对重金属的变化规律和风险分布的澄清可以为煤化工厂土壤中重金属的预防和保护提供理论依据的科学依据。