ABSTRACT SedNetNZ is used to model the effect of erosion control undertaken under the Sustainable Land Use Initiative (SLUI) and predict the effect of climate change on sediment load in the Manawatū–Whanganui region. Sediment load in 2004 is estimated at 13.4 Mt yr−1; by 2018, ≈5000 km2 of land had farm plans implemented and annual sediment load reduced by 6.2% of the 2004 load. If SLUI stops at the 2018 level of implementation, by 2038 it is predicted to achieve a 15.7% reduction in annual sediment load. If SLUI continues to implement farm plans, 7949 km2 of land will be treated by 2043 and annual sediment load could be reduced by a further 14.7%. Climate change is predicted to substantially increase sediment loads. By 2043 annual sediment load for the region is predicted to increase, compared to 2004, by between 8.3 and 23.7%. However, this can largely be offset by SLUI works. By 2090 an annual sediment load increase of between 53 and 224% due to climate change is predicted. The results suggest climate warming may dominate changes in sediment load in the future.

中文翻译：

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模拟土地管理干预和气候变化对 Manawatū-Whanganui 地区沉积物负荷的影响

摘要 SedNetNZ 用于模拟根据可持续土地利用倡议 (SLUI) 进行的侵蚀控制的影响，并预测气候变化对 Manawatū-Whanganui 地区沉积物负荷的影响。2004 年的沉积物负荷估计为 13.4 Mt yr-1；到 2018 年，约有 5000 平方公里的土地实施了养殖计划，年泥沙负荷比 2004 年减少了 6.2%。如果 SLUI 在 2018 年的实施水平上停止，预计到 2038 年，年输沙量将减少 15.7%。如果 SLUI 继续实施农场计划，到 2043 年将处理 7949 平方公里的土地，年泥沙量可进一步减少 14.7%。预计气候变化将大大增加沉积物负荷。到 2043 年，与 2004 年相比，该地区的年泥沙负荷预计将增加 8.3% 至 23.7%。然而，这在很大程度上可以被 SLUI 作品所抵消。到 2090 年，由于气候变化，预计年沉积物负荷将增加 53% 至 224%。结果表明，未来气候变暖可能主导沉积物负荷的变化。