Divorce and family dissolution are global issues linked to various socioeconomic, demographic, and spatial variables. In the last decade, the divorce rate has increased dramatically across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia). Rapid economic development, social transformation, and modernization have directly led to deep cultural changes in marriage and marital instability. Although the geographic perspectives of family formation and divorce risks have received considerable global attention, the spatial variations of divorce rates have not been examined across Arab countries or GCC communities. This study uses univariate and bivariate local indicators of spatial association (LISA) as well as Moran’s I and spatial econometric regression models (spatial lag and spatial error) to examine the geographic distribution of divorce rates in Oman at a subnational level. Data sets from the 2010 census were used for the modeling and geospatial analysis and a range of statistical variables, including women’s employment, female educational levels, urban residence, economically inactive females, and polygamous marriage, was examined. Spatial autocorrelation patterns and clusters of divorce rate associations were calculated and causal influences of sociodemographic characteristics on divorce were modeled. The findings revealed that the effects of sociodemographic variables on divorce and family instability across Omani subnational boundaries vary spatially. Hence, urban, suburban, and rural differences are significant predictors explaining the outcomes of family dissolution. There were high divorce rates, particularly in the northwest and northeast areas. Females’ educational level was a negative predictor of divorce, whereas other variables were positively correlated with divorce rates. Although many global nonspatial studies have investigated divorce rates, there is a lack of research on family formation and dissolution in the Arab world and GCC states. This study fills the gap in the literature by contributing to the understanding of the role that the spatial structure of various sociodemographic variables plays in affecting divorce rates within local Omani communities.

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社会人口学特征对阿曼离婚率的影响：婚姻分离的空间模型

离婚和家庭解体是与各种社会经济、人口和空间变量相关的全球性问题。在过去十年中，海湾合作委员会 (GCC) 国家（巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、阿曼、阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯）的离婚率急剧上升。经济的快速发展、社会转型和现代化，直接导致了婚姻文化的深刻变革和婚姻的不稳定。尽管家庭形成和离婚风险的地理视角已受到全球相当大的关注，但尚未在阿拉伯国家或海湾合作委员会社区研究离婚率的空间变化。本研究使用空间关联的单变量和双变量本地指标 (LISA) 以及 Moran's I 和空间计量经济回归模型（空间滞后和空间误差）来检查阿曼在次国家级离婚率的地理分布。来自 2010 年人口普查的数据集用于建模和地理空间分析，并检查了一系列统计变量，包括女性就业、女性教育水平、城市居住、经济不活跃的女性和一夫多妻制。计算了空间自相关模式和离婚率关联的集群，并对社会人口特征对离婚的因果影响进行了建模。研究结果表明，社会人口变量对阿曼次国家边界离婚和家庭不稳定的影响在空间上有所不同。因此，城市、郊区和农村的差异是解释家庭解体结果的重要预测因素。离婚率很高，尤其是在西北和东北地区。女性的教育水平是离婚的负向预测因素，而其他变量与离婚率呈正相关。尽管许多全球非空间研究调查了离婚率，但缺乏对阿拉伯世界和海湾合作委员会国家家庭形成和解体的研究。