ABSTRACT

In this paper, we build a System Dynamics simulation model to study the long-term counterintuitive consequences of internationalisation strategies of machinery producers in industrial clusters and proposes an explanation for declusterization. To test this hypothesis, we collected empirical data on declusterization and clusters’ exports towards newly industrialized countries, we formalised our hypotheses on the causes of the observed phenomenon in a model, and we explored the behaviour of the model through computer simulation. Comparing the adherence of model-simulated and real data we tested our hypotheses on endogenous causes of declusterization. Our work contributes to widening our perspective on the study of industrial clusters’ dynamics at least under two perspectives. First, we propose an evolutionary perspective that highlights the need to understand the development of clusters’ lifecycle. Second, we warn on long-term, possibly undesired, consequences of clusters’ internationalisation.

摘要

在本文中，我们建立了系统动力学仿真模型，以研究产业集群中机械生产商国际化战略的长期反直觉后果，并提出了解簇的解释。为了检验该假设，我们收集了关于去集群化和集群向新兴工业化国家出口的经验数据，对模型中观察到的现象的成因进行了形式化的假设，并通过计算机仿真探索了模型的行为。比较模型模拟和真实数据的依从性，我们测试了关于内源性去簇化原因的假设。我们的工作至少在两个方面有助于拓宽对产业集群动力学研究的视野。第一的，我们提出了一种进化的观点，强调了了解集群生命周期发展的必要性。第二，我们警告集群国际化的长期后果，这可能是不希望的。