ABSTRACT Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human–flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynamic role of individual and governmental decision making on flood-risk management, we developed and implemented a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Within this framework, household agents are located in a floodplain protected by a levee system. Individual behaviour is based on Protection Motivation Theory and includes the options to (1) not react to flood risk; (2) implement individual flood protection measures; or (3) file a complaint to the government. The government decides about reinforcing the levee system, compromising between a cost-benefit analysis and filed complaints from households. We found that individual decision making can significantly influence flood risk. In addition, the coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework approach captures commonly observed socio-hydrological dynamics, namely levee and adaptation effects. It provides an explanatory tool for assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of flood risk in a socio-hydrological system.

中文翻译：

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使用基于代理的耦合和水力建模框架捕获洪水风险动态

摘要 定居洪泛区水文和社会过程之间的双向相互作用和反馈决定了复杂的人-洪水系统，并随着时间的推移改变脆弱性。为了关注个人和政府决策在洪水风险管理中的动态作用，我们开发并实施了一个基于代理的耦合水力建模框架。在此框架内，家庭代理位于受堤防系统保护的洪泛区。个人行为基于保护动机理论，包括以下选项：（1）不对洪水风险做出反应；（二）落实个别防洪措施；(3) 向政府投诉。政府决定加强堤防系统，在成本效益分析和家庭投诉之间做出妥协。我们发现个人决策可以显着影响洪水风险。此外，基于代理的耦合和水力建模框架方法捕获了普遍观察到的社会水文动力学，即堤坝和适应效应。它为评估社会水文系统中洪水风险的时空动态提供了一种解释性工具。